Peaking Out - Time to Act Is Now

Since the most optimistic projections say oil peaking will happen just 20 years from now, time is running out even under the best scenario.

Published: 15-Jun-2005

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Geologists aren't finding major new oil fields anywhere in the world and most do not expect to do so. Existing fields will reach their maximum output within a few decades.

Meanwhile, crude oil is being consumed at an ever-faster pace, not only in the United States and Europe but also in rapidly developing economies like China and India.

That combination falling reserves and rising demandcould produce a global economic crisis unlike any in history.


Visits to China, India, Malaysia and Pakistan are significant because the trip spells out the Saudi Kingdom's Look East policy, representing a new reorientation in its foreign policy that was heavily tilted toward the West.

The worst two scenarios suggest a drastic decline in output to 875,000 barrels a day by the end of 2007 and to just 520,000 a day by the end of 2008.

Bush said he envisioned a future in which a plug-in hybrid car could drive 40 miles on a lithium-ion battery, then stop at a filling station for ethanol, a fuel usually made from corn, similar to HyMotion Prius pictured below.


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