Production Trends Point to Reliance on Imported Oil

From Alaska to Mexico to Norway, new oil discoveries are too few and too small to offset declining output at mature and aging fields, with production from North Sea to fall almost by half in 2020.

Published: 03-Jan-2005

nbsp;world's daily oil consumption is expected to climb to 121 million barrels in 2030, from about 82 million barrels in 2004, according to the International Energy Agency.

Where will that oil come from?

Despite producing at a record level of 30 million barrels a day, OPEC now accounts for only a third of the world's oil production. But that market share is expected to increase significantly, reaching more than 50 percent in 2030, as countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran, which have ample reserves, increase their investments and raise production.

But for many other producing countries, from Norway to Mexico, the picture is quite different. New discoveries are too few and too small to offset declining output at mature and aging fields.

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