Hydrogen Cars: Not a Sure Thing

"Against the background of hydrogen's true believers, the National Academy of Sciences report seemed calculated to stay reasonably optimistic despite a host of reasons to be skeptical."

Published: 10-Feb-2004

Despite all the promise of pollution-free vehicles, a transportation system based on hydrogen fuel cells is anything but a sure bet, members of a National Academy of Sciences panel concluded last week.

Even if the most optimistic predictions prove true, and the first hydrogen fuel cell vehicles reach commercial showrooms by 2015, it would take at least another quarter-century before they have a major impact on the market, the panel concluded.

"This is a tremendously important, transforming opportunity we are talking about, but it's not going to happen with current technology and current knowledge," said Dan Sperling, a panel member and director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis.



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