2025: Year of the Battery Singularity?

The point where batteries replace gasoline but at lower lifetime costs, is the singularity point where they completely replace combustion engines.

Published: 28-Jan-2014

Ramez Naam, author of The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet, recently explained that lithium-ion batteries have a fifteen year history of exponential price reduction. Between 1991 and 2005, the capacity that could be bought with $100 went up by a factor of 11. The trend continues through to the present day.

SolidEnergy calculates that its materials could be used to make battery packs that cost $130 per kilowatt-hour, in line with U.S. Department of Energy goals for making electric vehicles affordable. Battery pack costs are typically kept secret, but estimates range from $250 to $500 per kilowatt-hour for packs in commercial electric vehicles.

The 85 KWh battery pack for a Tesla S would go from $20,000 to $40,000 down to about $11,000.

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