US Gov't Predicts Only 1 in 100 Cars Will Be Electric in 2040

While futurist Lars Thomsen sees gasoline cars becoming obsolete after 2016, the US Energy Information Agency thinks the exact opposite.

Published: 29-Dec-2013

Electric vehicles are gaining a small foothold in the U.S., but according to the feds, it will remain just that — small. Fossil fuels will power the vast majority of vehicles for the next two and a half decades, with electric cars accounting for a scant 1 percent of vehicles sold in the United States in 2040, according to Uncle Sam.

See EV World publisher's take on this prediction:If Gasoline Cars Still Dominate in 2040, What Fuel Will They Burn?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook report for 2014 predicts that by 2040, nearly eight in 10 cars sold will run on gasoline, down marginally the number sold last year. The number of diesels rolling out of showrooms will double to 4 percent of all vehicles sold, while hybrids will comprise 5 percent of cars. That’s up from 3 percent last year.

But the headline figure is this: The EIA predicts that only 1 percent of total vehicle sales in the U.S. will be plug-in hybrids, with another 1 percent being fully electric in 2040.

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