Even Low Electric Car Sales Estimates May be Optimistic

Joel West wonders who'll buy electric cars after the early adopter market is satisfied.

Published: 03-Jan-2011

A big debate recently on EVs and PHEVs has been how to measure the miles per gallon given that - a) sometimes they use no gas at all; and b) electricity is an energy cost, even if it’s not a gallon of gas.

But now I think it’s time to focus on HPM (hype-per-million): misleadingly high press popularity that masks underlying revenue model problems. Electric cars seem to be heavy on the hype — by the vendors, the business press, the general press and even politicians — while sales are barely improved from the first great coming of the EV. (And this time, there’s no one to blame for poor sales but the invisible hand of basic economics.)

An AP report Friday was stark in its assessment:

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