Successfully tackling the problem of sustainable transportation globally
will require the interplay of emerging vehicle technologies with a
rational, market-based policy approach, according to a new study by the
World Energy Council. [Executive Summary].
The first pillar for policy making is the energy objective, according to
the study, Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050. That
objective needs to be described in terms of the type of energy to be saved
(total energy, fossil energy, petroleum energy, GHG emissions), the
numerical target, or the target range and the timeframe.
That policy should not be based on technology alone, the study cautions.
Rather, it should be based on an integrated approach which considers
transportation technology alongside contributions from other actors in the
energy chain, including fuels, governments and consumers.
The approach addresses the behaviour of business and private
consumers in purchasing decisions and use of energy, of fuel
suppliers in the energy content of their fuels, of equipment
manufactures in the efficiency of their products and of governments
in their responsibility for the transportation environment. It must
be ensured that for all stakeholders a productive market is in place
which financially rewards behaviour leading to higher efficiency.
—“Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050”
Technologies for Efficiency. The report authors expect that passenger
vehicle technology will remain highly dependent on petroleum fuels and
internal combustion engines (ICE) for the foreseeable future.
Increasing efficiency of the ICE-based powertrains will come through
advanced diesels, new combustion regimes, and hybridization. Diesel and
hybrid electric vehicles present a cost effective short-, medium- and
long-term method to increase mobility energy efficiency and reduce total
mobility energy consumption.
The report also sees plug-in hybrids as a high-potential interim solution
due to the petroleum savings provided through pure electric driving in
addition to the conventional hybrid regeneration function.
A [US] rollout scenario in the EPA analysis estimates PHEV passenger
vehicle sales penetration of 15% by 2030, resulting in 9% of vehicle
stock in 2030. In this scenario, nearly 2 billion barrels of
gasoline are saved by 2030. Savings in 2030 represent approximately
5.5% of annual consumption. The net costs are calculated to be
negative by approximately 2024, through cost reductions with high
production volumes and fuel savings.
A few of the other conclusions of the report include:
- Second-generation biofuels such as synthetic biomass-to-liquids
(BtL), cellulosic ethanol and hydrotreated fats or oils will grow
significantly by 2035. The report sees gas-to-liquids (GtL) growing
strongly through the next decade. The production of BtL and
cellulosic ethanol is, however, accompanied by a significant
increase in primary energy consumption due to the energy consumed in
their production process. Other advanced biofuels are under
development and may present viable long-term options, according to
the report.
-
Due to high greenhouse gas emissions, coal-based fuels such as CTL
are not deemed as viable alternatives on large scale, even if some
regions with low CO2 concerns are already preparing a step into CTL
production today.
-
By 2050, gasoline and diesel fuels will still play a major role, but
their biofuel portion will be significant.
-
Electric power utilization in transport will also increase, in
particular in OECD and richer developing countries. This will be
manifested as increased hybridization with a potentially significant
element of pure electric vehicles powered by batteries and/or fuel
cells.
-
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles offer most of the benefits of
electric vehicles, with the convenience of conventional internal
combustion engines. The presence of two full powertrains in a
plug-in hybrid vehicle means that for this technology to become
viable for the mass market, substantial reductions in the cost of
the electric powertrain are essential.
-
Hydrogen fuel and fuel cell vehicles are expected to gain a market
foothold by 2035 and grow towards 2050. By 2050, hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles may be able to compete with diesel and electric hybrid
vehicles in terms of cost efficiency of reduction in energy
consumption, but this depends strongly on the source of the fuel.
Available demand management measures.
Transport system efficiency. demand. In addition to the “hard” technology
measures for reducing transportation energy consumption, there are
“intermediate” measures, including regulations, taxes and pricing
measures. A third category of measures are the “soft” technologies, which
include those measures that can affect demand for mobility, thereby
reducing total travel and therefore energy consumption.
Examples of these intermediate and soft measures include:
- Urban planning in existing or growing urban areas.
- Demand management through offering viable transport alternatives.
- Utilizing modern communications technology to reduce vehicle miles
travelled per vehicle (e.g. telecommuting).
- Utilizing modern communications technology to improve driving
efficiency (e.g. telematics, traffic control).
- Offering mass transit systems.
- Pricing strategies to encourage less driving or switching to more
efficient modes.
- Government regulations, which encourage or enforce the use of
certain technologies or modes of transport.
Elements of the integrated policy approach. The report lists 10 measures
and technologies (levers) and contributors that policy makers can use in
an integrated approach to reduce transport energy consumption:
- Vehicle Efficiency – Manufacturers
- Fuel energy intensity - Fuel suppliers
- Efficiency of components - Component suppliers (e.g. air
conditioning)
- Mode selection - Consumers
- Vehicle purchase - Consumers
- Travel demand - Consumers
- Travel efficiency - Consumers & service providers
- Driving style - Drivers (private or public)
- Maintenance - Drivers
- Transport infrastructure - Governments
The World Energy Council, established in 1923, is a multi-energy
organization with autonomous Member Committees in 94 countries, including
most of the largest energy-producing and energy consuming countries. The
organisation covers all types of energy, including coal, oil, natural gas,
nuclear, hydro, and renewables, and is UN-accredited, non-governmental,
non-commercial and non-aligned.
The report is the product of the WEC’s Transport Specialist Study Group,
led by Dr. Simon Godwin of DaimlerChrysler (now Daimler AG). Participants
in the study group include representatives from BMW; Cummins; Honda;
Insitut Français du Petrole; Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo & Universidad
Nacional Autónoma de México; Japan Energy Association; Nissan; PSA; and
Toyota.
A valid email address and confirmation is required before your comment can be posted. Comments not confirmed within
24 hours are automatically deleted.
