Iran and Peak Oil

From a peak oil point of view, however, stoppage of Iranian exports either by formal UN embargo or by Tehran's retaliatory or preemptive cutting of exports (more likely) would be a seminal event.

Published: 27-Jan-2006

The world moves quickly these days. Since the New Year, oil has risen by more than $7 per barrel and currently is in sight of the all-time high of $70 a barrel. Cold weather in Eastern Europe and threats of supply disruptions from Nigeria and Iran are raising the possibility of an economy-threatening spike in oil prices later this year.

How high would oil prices have to go to before serious economic consequences begin? From our experience in 2005, we know $3 a gallon gasoline won't do it. Gasoline consumption in the US actually increased a bit during the past year despite much higher prices and numerous lengthy supply interruptions caused by the various hurricanes.

Each of us has a personal gas price at which we start to curtail our non-essential driving and a higher price at which our non-emergency driving comes to close to stopping. Most of us have no idea just where these prices might be for we have never had to think about the issue before. Gasoline has always been so cheap, few have had to worry.


Visits to China, India, Malaysia and Pakistan are significant because the trip spells out the Saudi Kingdom's Look East policy, representing a new reorientation in its foreign policy that was heavily tilted toward the West.

The worst two scenarios suggest a drastic decline in output to 875,000 barrels a day by the end of 2007 and to just 520,000 a day by the end of 2008.

Bush said he envisioned a future in which a plug-in hybrid car could drive 40 miles on a lithium-ion battery, then stop at a filling station for ethanol, a fuel usually made from corn, similar to HyMotion Prius pictured below.


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