People Will Still Need Oil, But Earth Will Run Out

Things are changing in the oil patch. There have been no discoveries of new 'super giant' oil fields since 1976. Big oil company mergers suggest that oil is cheaper to find on Wall Street than with a drill bit. Meanwhile, some firms are investing billions in alternative energy sources.

Published: 09-Jan-2006

Watching from the balcony as cars and trucks zoomed along the freeway, we pondered how different the world would be when gasoline costs $25 per gallon. Some of our family members witnessed the transition from horses to cars to planes to jets to rockets.

Will we see the trend reverse in our lifetime? How good are your riding and grooming skills? Know any good farriers? Got a big shovel?

We probably won't revert to horses for transportation anytime soon, but we ought to consider the consequences of Peak Oil. Two undisputable facts rule any discussion of Peak Oil:


Visits to China, India, Malaysia and Pakistan are significant because the trip spells out the Saudi Kingdom's Look East policy, representing a new reorientation in its foreign policy that was heavily tilted toward the West.

The worst two scenarios suggest a drastic decline in output to 875,000 barrels a day by the end of 2007 and to just 520,000 a day by the end of 2008.

Bush said he envisioned a future in which a plug-in hybrid car could drive 40 miles on a lithium-ion battery, then stop at a filling station for ethanol, a fuel usually made from corn, similar to HyMotion Prius pictured below.


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