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About three years ago I received a call from a prominent investor in the US. He asked me for advice on Better Place. I told him that Better Place had an essential flaw in its approach: It underestimated Li-ion battery technological development.
I then went on to say that we would not have to wait too long to see much better batteries making the costly battery-swap stations envisioned by Better Place both meaningless and out of focus. I was found to be correct.
I insist that the battery-swap idea was probably the problem. Why? Well, because it relied heavily on failure of all battery/EV makers to bring soon enough and at a fairly reasonable price the appropriate batteries to the market.
True many battery makers failed in their attempt to do so. But some of them succeeded and thanks to them we can now foresee a brighter future for EVs altogether.
One success story is Tesla but not the only one. Nissan's Leaf and GM's Volt are also part of the list of winning cases in the new history of introduction of EVs into the market.
Somewhat surprisingly, Ford doesn't want to be a laggard in the race either. This will result in cheaper lithium technology in the very near future.
Behind are therefore left some analysts's presumptions that it will take decades to see substantial advances in Li-ion battery technological development.
Commentary Viewed 3739 Times
Dear Juan, A lot of other factors are in play when a start up don't make it. I think it is premature to say the battery swap concept was the culprit. The idea was good but not the execution, they took on more than they can handle and because they had no role in producing the EVs or the battery packs, it was tough to control the pricing of the end product. The $800+ million burn is not money down the drain, others like Tesla and others may benefit from a lot from Better Place. More than 97% of start up don't make it anyway, it wasn't expected to make it but the lessons learnt will pave the way for the next guy to succeed. The cost for the battery packs needs to come down before they can make it attractive for the masses until that happens EVs will still be a niche product for the upper class who could afford them TK [135]
TECK KEE SHIH, First, the swapping idea was not a good idea. Do you know why Elon Musk never bought it? Well, because he bet on supercharging instead. Note also that supercharging is part of Li-ion battery technological development since not all batteries can utilize the kind of superchargers developed by Tesla.
Second, you touched upon an interesting point: Better Place's inability to control the EV value chain, something I already mentioned (albeit in reference to BYD) in a previous work I published a few weeks ago on Seeking Alpha (See: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1443181-lithium-ion-starter-batteries-will-byd-take-the-place-of-a123-systems). [137]