Commentary by peak oil pioneer and senior expert with the National Iranian Oil Company
Open Access Article Originally Published: February 20, 2006
Reprinted from the February 20, 2006 ASPO USA newsletter
It is now common knowledge that the lion's share of remaining conventional oil reserves is concentrated in the Middle East (ME). All major reserves' assessors agree on this crucial point, as shown in Table 1 below.
Table 1. Middle East's share of global conventional oil reserves
|
Assessor |
Middle East's share of worldwide oil reserves |
|
Oil & Gas Journal (1) |
57.5% |
|
BP Statistical Review (2) |
61.7% |
|
Dr. Colin Campbell (3) |
51.8% |
References:
[1] O&GJ, December 19, 2005 (for January 1, 2006).
[2] BP, June 2005 (through end of 2004).
[3] Dr. Campbell, fifth revision, February 2, 2005 (end of 2004).
If the above assessors generally agree on the ME's predominant share, they tend to disagree on specific estimates of both global and ME reserves.
It goes without saying that when assaying ME oil reserves, one should tread carefully. Because, on the one hand, oil reserves' estimation is both a science and an art; and, on the other hand, seen from the point of view of most ME countries, oil reserves are more political than geological. Thus, non-scientific views come to prime over science and further enhance the various types of shades that have led to an overall opaque situation in the Middle East.
Middle East Reserves
Focus here will be on the five major ME oil producing countries, the so-called 'ME Five' --- namely: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Four of the latest available estimates for these major producers are presented in Table 2.
Table 2. Remaining proved oil reserves for "ME Five," according to the major assessors
|
Country |
Oil & Gas Journal [1] |
BP Statistical Review [2] |
Colin Campbell [3] |
Author's range [4] |
|
Iran |
132.5 |
132.5 |
69.0 |
35-45 |
|
Iraq |
115.0 |
115.0 |
61.0 |
80 - 100 |
|
Kuwait |
101.5 |
99.0 |
54.0 |
45 - 55 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
264.3 |
262.7 |
159.0 |
120 - 140 |
|
United Arab Emirates |
97.7 |
97.8 |
44.0 |
40 - 50 |
|
TOTAL: |
711.0 |
707.0 |
387.0 |
320 - 390 |
References:
[1] & [2] As in Table 1.
[3] ASPO Newsletter #62, February 2006.
[4] February 2006.
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Reader Comments
5 comments so far...
03-Dec-2006
39036
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Posted by: Richard Easton
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03-Dec-2006
39037
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Dr. Fritz Zwicky suggested cleaning up Los Angeles smog by mounting a large cannister of activated charcoal on top of every car. This would sweep the sky as you drive. Today, I understand some auto engines produce exhaust that is cleaner than the air that goes into the carburettor. Maybe we can have cars that run on sucked-up smog. Otherwise, renewably generated electricity would be better than what we are doing.
Posted by: Richard Easton
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22-Feb-2006
13121
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Given Dr. Bakhtiari's role in NIOC this says that the Middle East is in peak oil if not the rest of the world. I have to assume that he carries clout in the ME and the rest of the oil industry. Is he generally regarded as too pessimistic in the oil industry? From this executive summary he is telling me that peak oil is a done deal and that only individual field productivity is of any importance at this point.
Posted by: Serafino Carri
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24-Feb-2006
13196
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If, as some estimates suggest, the daily increase in humanity (births over deaths) is somewhere around 256,000 added digestive tracts per deim, then the loss of life from the Indian Ocean Christmas Tsunami was replaced in about 20 hours.
This is NOT a good time to be having Peak Oil if there won't be enough gas stations to go around for everybody.
If Evangelicals have an "in" with the Almighty, perhaps they can petition with the idea of taking the misplaced chemistry out of the atmosphere, condensing it back into the "juice of rocks" and stashing it in our half empty underground vaults? This would be a great move, as we already have the wells, pipelines and refineries in place!
Otherwise, the best time to conserve a resource is while there is some resource to conserve.
Posted by: Charles Mac Arthur
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28-Feb-2006
13314
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"The best time to conserve a resourse is while there is some resource left to conserve." I'm going to use that one. Truth is most comprehensible when it is overly obvious.
Posted by: steve erlsten
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