Interview with solar panel pioneer Bill Yerkes on cutting the cost of solar cells
Open Access Article Originally Published: May 15, 2004
Fifty years ago, a pair of Bell Lab scientists introduced to the world the silicon photovoltaic chip, a revolutionary way to convert sunlight into electricity. Eventually their efforts would power a remarkable range of applications from orbiting communications satellites to off-the-grid cabins.
And while steady progress -- and even breakthroughs -- have been made in the last half century to reduce the per watt cost of photovoltaic panels, it remains one of the most expensive methods currently available for generating electricity when compared to centralized power generation from natural gas, coal and even wind.
But that situation may be about to change...finally. A California start-up manned by some of the most experienced photovoltaic manufacturing experts in the world is about to shake up the PV industry and helping lead that effort is long-time EV World reader and occasional contributor, Bill Yerkes.
Interestingly, it wasn't the activities of his new company that compelled Yerkes, whom I regard as a good friend, though we occasionally share conflicting political views, to contact me. He emailed me to remind me of a prediction he'd made years ago that cellulosic ethanol production was just around the corner. His email alerted me to an article describing the first delivery of commercially made, cellulosic ethanol, an event that now opens the door to a promising new fuel substitute for gasoline.
But my first surprise was the size of today's PV industry. According to Yerkes, it is now a $4 billion a year business. He told me that when he sold his first company, Solar Technology International, to Atlantic Richfield in 1978, they were projecting the industry would reach this size by 2000; so things are pretty much on track.
"All the oil companies are coming back," he told me, "... all the large companies that can build this kind of massive infrastructure."
Hopefully, that's a good thing.
The next revelation was that his new company, Solaicx doesn't actually build solar panels, which was a misunderstanding on my part. Instead, they manufacture the silicon wafers that are eventually fabricated into PV chips and then assembled into modules by panel makers. Solaicx's claim to fame will be their advanced silicon crystal grower that turns out a continuous flow of silicon ingots, unlike current Chaikovsky technology, which is based on a more energy-intensive, time-consuming and wasteful batch growing process.
In a way, this brings Yerkes full circle from where he started over thirty years ago, back in 1975, when he was buying his silicon wafers from a German manufacturer. His original plant was located in a 4000 square foot warehouse in Chatsworth, California. Every Monday, he'd receive a shipment of silicon wafers that he'd manufacture into PV cells and then assemble into modules and finally into panels, which he'd ship out on Friday. His first large order went to Explorer Motor Homes, a recreational vehicle manufacturer.
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Reader Comments
17 comments so far...
07-Jul-2008
62584
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did this Bill Yerkes attend Penn State University in the early 1950's? and is or was brilliant bridge player?
Posted by: Mary Lou Gagliardi-Rentschler
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29-Jun-2004
3605
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Bill,
What is the efficiency of Solaicx's $1/watt wafer?
I couldnt get that from your interview with Yerkes.
Thanks."
Posted by: B.R. Deshpande
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17-May-2004
2963
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In a subsequent email exchange, Bill Yerkes informed me that Solaicx will begin turning out their new, lower-cost solar wafers starting in October, 2004.
"
Posted by: Bill Moore
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24-May-2004
3070
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Do you remember where you saw that article about the earth losing solar energy from the sun?"
Posted by: Michael Sanders
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26-May-2004
3105
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Michael, this article focuses mostly on the health impact, but it mentions a 10-15% reduction in solar energy.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/08/0812_020812_asianhaze.html"
Posted by: Steve Erlsten
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27-May-2004
3129
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'. . .Yerkes believes we need to give people a fuel like ethanol that can go into their gasoline tanks. . .'
While I applaud Mr. Yerkes and his company for the development and manufacture of lower-cost, more energy-efficient silicon wafers for the solar industry, I take issue with his thoughts about ethanol as a viable fuel alternative.
Promoting ethanol is about promoting massive, industrial-scale, mono-culture crop farming (and even fewer industrial refiners) at the expense of more innovative, productive, lower-impact, and hence, sustainable family farming.
Also, there is no way ethanol could provide even half of all the fuel this nation's vehicles require without converting every piece of tillable land into a corn field. "
Posted by: Stephen Koermer
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08-Jun-2004
3312
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Doesn't the film-PV technology make up for the 10% (in)efficiency with much lower cost of installation?. Laminated to sheet metal substrate, it becomes a part of the roof structure itself. Eventually, much larger surface can be had for a lot lower construction price. No need for protective enclosures or supporting structures. How are $/Watt ratios evolving in that side of the industry?. "
Posted by: Tomasz Migurski
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17-May-2004
2968
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This sounds excellent, however over the years I have seen a hundred interviews with "experts" that will be coming out with 'low cost' solar electric panels, 'in just a few months',. Until they say 'Send me $2000 and I will send 1 kW worth of our panels on the next truck.' I must take this as just article number 101.
I wish Mr. Yerkes good luck. I will be the first to send a check when he is shipping product. Until then we will see."
Posted by: Mike Swift
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29-May-2004
3140
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Stephen Koermer,
You have jumped to the wrong conclusion about how to make ethanol. I don't propose it to be made from corn (as now in the US) or sugar cane (as in Brazil for 30 years. Newly developed bioethanol processes of wood fiber or cellulous (the corn stalks, or rice hulls, not the food part) are digested with enzymes into ethanol at a very low cost. NREL has proven this out in a biolab in Golden, Colorado. IOGEN in Canada has the best web site explaining this technology. Check it out and don't get so upset about private enterprise doing large production. This is not going to be a village enterprise, but can be done anywhere in reasonable sized plants. Look at:
http://www.iogen.ca/3000.html
Ciao, Bill Yerkes"
Posted by: Bill Yerkes
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18-May-2004
2986
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"
Posted by: Darell Dickey
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18-May-2004
2987
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I have read recently that the amount of solar energy being received by earth has been declining during the past decade or so. As I recall, the reduction has been about 10%. If this trend continues, how will it affect the solar energy effort? I didn't see this issue mentioned in the article."
Posted by: Jerry Schneider
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18-May-2004
2988
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Indium cells promise the most efficiency. I wonder whats going on with indium cell production?
Glad to here about the progress with silicone cells."
Posted by: William Taylor
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18-May-2004
2990
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Jerry... When I interviewed Bill Yerkes, the information on solar degradation had not come out yet, but it's a good question. Apparently, it varies significantly based on where you live. Hong Kong has seen its solar percentage cut by more than one-third. I think the global average is 10 percent.
Most of this is the result of particulate soot and global warming. The more solar energy we can use, the less coal and CO2 and the more sunlight we'll start to see again. Otherwise, we'll continue the health-destroying, light-robbing spiral.
"
Posted by: Bill Moore
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18-May-2004
2991
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Mike... the difference between most "experts" and guys like Yerkes is that Bill is a doer not your typical researcher or academician who usually gets interviewed. He's been building and selling solar panels at a profit since the early 1970s. He's a real-world capitalist and is proud to say so.
That being said, Bill's product is sold to PV cell makers and not the public, so how much of his cost savings are passed on to you and me, remains to be seen. But assuming companies like Sun Power can pass on their savings to consumers, we may see prices begin to drop to levels where they become competitive with grid-power, especially since we can reasonably assume oil and gas prices will continue to increase over the next two to three decades and beyond, while the price of electricity generated by solar electric panels bought today will remain fixed. "
Posted by: Bill Moore
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21-May-2004
3031
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Cost and price are two different things. Breakfast cereal in the US costs less then the box they put it in. Yet they charge $1 + per box. Also think of the music/CD business with costs of producing albums probably 2% of sales price. (also think of the price of bottled water!) Similiar supply and demand economics play out in many markets. Utimately why should you sell a product for cost when you can sell it for the market price. Until this technology is source to many manufacturer who compete with each other and have sufficient manufacturing capabilities to saturate demand in the marketplace price will not drop."
Posted by: No Spam
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21-May-2004
3032
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Cost and price are different, true enough, but if you'll listen carefully to what Bill said during the interview, Solaicx does have competitors, so there are others also getting into this technology, which should help drive costs down eventually.
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Posted by: Bill Moore
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14-Jul-2004
3909
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Mr. Yerkes obviously knows the PV industry, but if effeciency was everything single chrystal PV cells would have won out long ago because they have been twice as efficient as thin film for 20 years. What is exciting about the new thin films is that they can actually become part of the product, be it a cell phone, car or home. This is a disruptive technology that has the potentional to change how things are powered, especially mass produced items. That having been said, in the near term Mr. Yerkes is dead on accurate in looking at the production process and replacing batch production with continuous production. Efficient volume production is what will move the PV industry into the mainstream, not so much PV conversion efficiency.
Best, Bill Roush"
Posted by: Bill Roush
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