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EV WORLD EXCLUSIVE ARTICLE |

Actress Gillian Anderson played FBI Special Agent Dana Scully in popular 'X Files' television series and movies. Pictured is Opel Insignia that is the hypothetical platform for the proposed E-Flex II drive system based on surge power units.
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Chris Ellis proposes a plug-in hybrid good enough for G-men and Gillian Anderson.
Open Access Article Originally Published: October 17, 2008
This is the sequel to my recent EV World article 'Overcharged', in which I promised to describe a possible plug-in hybrid based on the mid-sized GM platform under the Chevrolet Malibu and Opel Insignia, rather than the compact platform used for the Chevy Volt and Cruze.
There is little doubt that the Volt will be an initial sales success amongst the same affluent and eco-sensitive customers who took to the Prius so enthusiastically, and for similar reasons. The key question for GM Europe is whether the Volt and its Opel equivalent -- let's call it the Opel X -- will be equally popular in Europe; the Prius isn't very popular amongst Europeans, despite fuel being twice as expensive as in the States. Another concern, for GM worldwide, is whether the Volt can attract 'economically rational' customers once the initial excitement has died down. The $7,500 federal tax credit promised for each Volt until the end of 2014 will undoubtedly help in the States, but few other governments will offer a similar subsidy. 'President presumptive' Barack Obama has promised that 'half of all cars purchased by the federal government will be plug-in hybrids or all-electric by 2012.' This should help Chevrolet but obviously does little for Opel.
So Opel's 'Volt sales mountain' looks higher and steeper than Chevrolet's, and there's another problem in Europe. If the information on the performance and electrical components of the Volt is correct, its performance is going to seem limited to most Europeans, particularly in Opel's main market, Germany. So Opel should already be strongly and urgently motivated to develop a 'better Volt'. And GM will miss a big trick if it doesn't make it available in the U.S.
This article suggests how Opel could provide its customers with a more competitive E-REV (Extended-Range Electric Vehicle), which may also prove vital to Chevrolet once the proposed federal tax credit of $7,500 per Chevy Volt runs out in 2014. According to the Seattle Times of 30 June 2008, 'Lutz said the first-generation Volt will retail for about $40,000 and generate no profit for GM'. The very high cost is due mainly to the large and expensive battery pack. However, let's assume GM will be more generous initially, and set the sticker price at a nominal $37,000, giving an effective price (to taxpayers) of $29,500 for the first three years or so, including the expected $7,500 tax credit. That should make the Volt only a few thousand dollars more expensive than a plug-in Prius or Insight, but what happens when the tax credits run out?
And there is another, 'family', problem for the Volt. It's the new Chevy Cruze, due to be in customers' hands globally before the end of 2009. Imagine you go to your local Chevy dealer to look at a Volt because you want a car which is inexpensive to run, not just so that you can tell the neighbors you have an electric car. By 2011, there will be a Cruze in the same showroom as the Volt, with several more on the lot. The Cruze looks like a Volt in profile and is very similar in size. But the sticker price on the nearest Cruze is $19,500, and that's before any discounts, etc. Let's have a reality check. If you drove 40 electric-only miles every day of the year in a Volt, then the most gasoline-miles you could save per year would be 14,600, assuming one overnight charge per day.
But let's get real.
Often quoted is the fact that the average U.S. both-ways commute by car is 33 miles. However, that's the average, including those folk who commute over a hundred miles a day. In fact, half of all driving commuters travel less than 20 miles a day, according to the Department of Transportation's Omnibus Household Survey. Given that most people who commute less than 15 miles a day won't see any point in paying extra for a car with an AER of more than 20 miles, let's assume the average Volt will cover 33 electric-miles a day for 300 days a year, allowing for vacations, business trips by air, non-driving days, etc, and that the Volt total daily average is 60 miles. That's 10,000 miles a year electrically, and 18,000 miles overall. At 10 cents per kWh net and 200 Wh/mile, that's $200 for electricity versus $1,000 for fuel for 10,000 miles with gasoline at $4 a gallon and 40 mpg, a net saving of $800, or $67 a month. Which isn't enough to cover the $10,000 difference between the net price (after applying the tax credit) of a Volt and the price of a Cruze. Leave alone the difference without any subsidy.
Opel's efforts could result in a plug-in offering which will make the Volt seem small, gutless and over-priced. And it could be on sale in Europe only a few months after the Volt begins to be offered to the public in the U.S. So what might it be? Here's a possible prototype that could be running around Russelsheim by the end of 2009.
The Chevy Malibu differs little in size from the Opel Insignia (or its probable Aura derivative?) except in terms of its wheelbase and the effect this has on rear legroom. A 'federal car' which is big enough for most practical purposes (for example, Special Agent Dana Scully [played by actress Gillian Andeson] and three large colleagues driving from Las Vegas to Area 51) will need the longer wheelbase (~4 inches) of the Malibu, leave alone the interior of a compact like a Cruze or a Volt. So let's assume a Chevrolet Malibu forms the basis for the 'federal demonstrator', which should enable GM to take a big slice of the 2012 federal car market. And let's give it a project name – 'GM 2012' is appropriate. As we will see, state governments should also find the GM 2012 attractive, and most police forces. If it's good enough for Scully.....
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6 comments so far...
06-Nov-2008
64781
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Nissan is developing a BEV with 450+ KM between charges. Wouldn't that negate the use of plug-ins may they be parralel or series?
With that much range from the battery pack, wouldn't a mini super-effcient power generator or super high efficiency solar cells be enough to keep the car going almost forever with a very small gas tank or on sunny days.
Posted by: Harvey Devost
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21-Oct-2008
64518
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@Eduardo,
The key difference between a Saab BioPower engine and all other engines which are claimed to use any mix of gasoline and E85 'optimally' is the use of a variable boost turbocharger. Most gas/E85 engines have compression ratios set for gasoline only. Because E85 has a much higher octane rating, these engines don't use E85 with maximum fuel efficiency, despite the claims. Yes, ignition and injection timing gets adjusted automatically in these engines, but the effective compression ratio remains the same. However, not with a BioPower engine, which automatically raises turbo boost pressure to burn the E85 more efficiently - remember, a diesel engine's better fuel efficiency comes mainly from its higher compression ratio. The bonus is ~20% higher peak power on E85. I apologize to Saab for forgetting about its many markets outside Europe where it does indeed sell BioPower versions of its 9-3 and 9-5 cars. But I don't think Saab will be too upset, because I don't think any other major car company does it right anywhere yet, as defined above. If I've missed something special in Brazil, please let us know.
@Warren
A basic surge power unit (SPU) would be an electric motor/generator and a relatively small battery or supercapacitor, not just a motor as you suggest. You may have been mislead by a mistake in my text – the sentence 'In its simplest form, it is an electric traction motor also capable of acting as a generator to recover energy during braking. ' should have ended with '... during braking, plus a relatively small battery or supercapacitor.' Please accept my apologies, everyone, for any confusion caused, but the various examples in the article should have made the point clear.
I was amused by your comment that 'The PHEV and the parallel HEV are dumb ideas and should be abandoned'. Almost every authority I've checked describes the Volt as a 'plug-in hybrid electric vehicle' or simply a 'plug-in hybrid', so you seem to have thrown your baby out with the bath water! Any hybrid that can be plugged in and can run for several miles at over 60 mph would seem to meet the intent of the label PHEV. So both a plug-in Prius and a Volt qualify as PHEVs. By all means try to argue that a plug-in Prius is not an E-REV, GM Marketing's attempt to differentiate the Volt. But so what, if the plug-in has a 40 mile AER? However, understand that GM's insistence that the Volt's engine power can only be delivered via the Volt's electric motor is a disadvantage functionally. The only advantage that can be claimed is one of cost, if a powerful generator and its controller can be manufactured for less than a simple gearbox. I'm not aware that any company has achieved this yet, nor do I expect it soon, and it will never be a significant cost advantage, outweighing the multiple disadvantages.
@Neil
You may well be right, but your comment may have unsettled GM's accountants and lawyers. First, almost anyone with a one-way commute of 40 miles or more will spend most of it at 60+ mph, traffic permitting, probably rather more. The claim of a 40-mile AER is usually qualified by a phrase such as 'in city driving' or 'over the UDDS cycle'. So I expect your suggested typical Volt user is going to get a little upset when she discovers that the engine cuts in after only 30 miles (or less). And that she is now getting only 40 mpg when the little guy in the Cruze (the much cheaper Volt look-alike) is getting 50 mpg. She might even spend some of her commuting time phoning her lawyer.
Your long-distance commuter is putting her battery pack through two full cycles a day. Assuming 250 commuting days a year and, ignoring weekend driving, that's 2,000 cycles over 4 years. Any potential second owner is going to be distinctly nervous of such high mileage Volts, until there are lots out there with 50,000+ miles on the clock. Any guesses on the typical sticker price of an early high-mileage Volt? Now work out the full cost-per-mile over the first ownership, and then the full life of the vehicle. If the battery packs in Volts driven like your example aren't unusually robust, then the warranty claims could get out of hand, starting in 2014.....
By then, Scully's 100,000 mile, three-year-old, Malibu plug-in will be on its second 8 kWh battery, but still going like new. Scully is planning to buy it for her mother, when the FBI's ready to part with it.
Posted by: Chris Ellis
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22-Oct-2008
64535
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Back to flex engines, In Brazil Volkswagen introduced its first model in 2003. After that all of them offer flex engines today. It's almost impossible to get a gasoline only or an alcohol only
vehicle today. I think their engines are set with a high compression ratio ( 12:1 ).All gas stations in the country offer gasoline ( with 10% to 20% ethanol added ), alcohol 100% and of course Diesel which still is subsidized by federal authority.
These engines are very efficient compared to any European, Asian or American flex engines. Brazil's energy solutions and resources should be a subject of research by most individuals interested in clean home made energy.
Posted by: Eduardo Souza
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17-Oct-2008
64452
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Dear Mr. Chris Ellis. You forgot to add a few engine manufacturers that produce flex-fuel engines.
In Brazil most car makers offer flex-fuel engines that can optimize efficiency no matter what combination gasoline/ethanol.
I'm sure you will find a lot of information about the correct use of bio-fuels in Brazil. It could almost be called sustainable, in relation to food/fuel land utilization.
Just want to add to your great words.
Eduardo
Posted by: Eduardo Souza
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19-Oct-2008
64477
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SPU? I would call that excessive use of acronyms. I prefer the term Electric Motor.
The series HEV, the range extended BEV (BEV with about a 120 mile range and a small hi-efficiency recharge generator) and the BEV are the three best options of the standard EV chassis.
The PHEV and the parallel HEV are dumb ideas and should be abandoned.
The Detroit Big Three would not be in the mess they're in now if they had marketed the 70-80 mpg diesel HEV's they developed under public directive and at taxpayer's expense in 1999. Instead they catered to their buddies in the Oil Industry to force consumers to waste as much fuel as possible. They deserve to go belly up, and should receive no funding from the government.
FlexFuel is another stupid idea. Biofuels are a waste of resources (except maybe algae based) and cannot supply more than 15% of fuel consumption, so who needs E85, E15 will do. Much better to build engines optimized for Methanol, at double the efficiency of typical gasoline engines, and still ultra-low emissions. After fossil fuels run out, we will be stuck with Methanol derived fuels anyway, as it can be made from green electricity plus water and atmospheric or waste CO2. Methanol fueled series HEV's are 4 times more efficient than standard ICE vehicles, including Picken’s wacky NG fueled vehicles. Convert NG to Methanol, and burn in extreme efficiency engines and series HEV’s, and that will quadruple the miles we can travel on NG. Add to that, the enormous, high GHG emitting, high fresh water consumption, environmentally destructive Tar Sands converts NG to heavy crude at a ratio of about 1 part NG to 3 parts Heavy Crude. So instead convert the NG to Methanol directly, and burn in series HEV engines, and you will gain 33% more mileage than using the Tar Sands conversion. So who needs the Tar Sands? On top of that, we’ve been waiting 20 yrs for an environmentally contentious, $20 billion, NG pipeline to be built to carry Arctic NG to southern markets – all of which will be used in the Tar Sands. It is much more efficient and cheaper to convert the NG at source to Methanol and ship it in simple-minded environmentally friendly tankers. Spills quickly disperse in water and are environmentally benign. Is it any wonder that the Oil Industry has instituted a blockade of Methanol Fuels? They also blockaded high efficiency diesel engines in light vehicles by having their government cronies abruptly lower the North American NOx emission level to 1/6th that of Europe’s – SOx, CO, HC’s, particulates – similar to Europe’s.
Posted by: Warren Heath
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20-Oct-2008
64498
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Chris,
Average miles traveled will not be relevant to the "non average" Chevy Volt purchaser. They will be buying an vehicle that can be used most of the time as an EV, with insurance against running out of battery range. The big market for GM will be longer distance commuters who can re-charge at home and at work sites. EV driving may be up to 80 miles/day, justifying the extra $10,000 cost.
Are any car manufactures really seriously considering fuel cells using hydrogen in the next 20years??
Posted by: Neil Howes
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