Open Access Article Originally Published: October 09, 2008
Will Bolivia be the Dubai of 2050? If electric cars have a great future, then perhaps. In March, Bolivian President Evo Morales signed a decree setting up a lithium extraction facility on the Uyuni fossilised salt lake. And in September, the Bollore Group made it known that it was negotiating a long term supply agreement for Bolivian lithium, for the launch of its electric vehicle, the Blue Car.
If it is undoubtedly premature to say that lithium is the oil of the new century, this raw material is still the subject of sudden interest, shown by the increase in its price from about $350 a tonne in 2003 to nearly $3,000 today.
The explanation is tied to developments in battery technology. For a long time these have functioned with lead: heavy in weight and low in energy. Good at starting engines but not to power them. In the 1980s nickel cadmium batteries reduced the weight but not sufficiently to ensure the success of electric cars, several thousand of which were launched in France. The breakthrough came from batteries using lithium, a very light metal that can hold a lot of energy. In particular, lithium ion batteries “for the same energy occupy half the volume of a nickel cadmium battery”, explains Franck Cecchi, operations director at JC-S, a company that specializes in this technology.
Bollore LMP that will power jointly-developed Pininfarina B0 electric car
Lithium ion technology was first used in laptop computers and mobile phones, for which consumption has grown in a strikingly. 78 million laptop computers were sold in 2007, 23% more than in 2006. As for mobile phones, the number of examples sold has grown from 517 million in 2003 to 1.1 billion in 2007. This fast expansion has completely transformed the lithium market that until now had limited applications in pharmaceuticals (lithium is a drug used to treat manic depressive disorders), lubrication, air conditioners etc. While batteries only represented 9% of lithium demand in 2000, they now absorb 20%. The arrival of electric cars would increase demand for the metal still further. “If they develop significantly, they are going to represent the number one use for lithium”, notes George Pichon, CEO of the metal trading company Marsmetal.
From which arises two problems: is the resource well distributed? Is there enough of it for future requirements? In fact, while lithium is very abundant in Nature, it only exists in economically exploitable concentrations in a very few places on the Earth: an area of fossilised salt lakes in the Andean countries, at the cross-roads of Argentina, Chile and Bolivia (close to 70% of world resources), as well as in salt lakes in Tibet and in mines in Australia, Russia and in the USA. Chile has been the number one world supplier since 1997, with the German firm Chemetall being the first operator. While we are a long way from seeing a cartel, the lithium map however draws out a new geopolitical situation.
Are the resources sufficient to ensure the development of the market? The answer is very difficult, due to the opacity of trading. “It’s not a very open market, a closed world, very secret”, says George Pichon. Production figures are not known exactly. It is estimated by the USGS (the geological service of the USA) at 25,000 tonnes per year. “In any case the price has increased enormously, mainly for speculative reasons” explains Jean-Marc Metais, CEO of Batscap, the Bollore subsidiary. “That’s why we are trying to control our supply channel, to secure our resources upstream”.
Another difficulty is that batteries for electric vehicles require lithium carbonate purified to 99.5%. This means a process quality which only the Japanese companies seem to have mastered.
The car manufacturers display no signs of concern about reserves of the metal. However a study by consultancy Meridian International Research published in May (The Trouble with Lithium 2) has thrown a cold draught on the subject: examining in detail the geological configurations of the different production sites it concludes: “Realistic increases in lithium production will not enable a revolution in automobile propulsion to be achieved in the next decade. (...) In the most optimistic scenario, it would only supply 8 million GM Volt type hybrids” (the next hybrid model from General Motors). This figure can be compared to a world market of 60 million petrol cars in 2008.
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6 comments so far...
04-Apr-2009
66351
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I would have to agree. In order to have growth in terms of the electric car market, there should be also more suppliers of its main components. Monoplizing these components may result to shortage and less growth. Carrand Car Wash Brush
Posted by: Sarah Lewis
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09-Oct-2008
64304
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This just highlights the need for a mindset change when it comes to personal transportation (among other things). For too long we've used axes when scalpels were appropriate.
There's no reason that we all need to drive around in 2500+ pound machines to move 300 pounds of human. There's also very little need for 300+ miles of range on a daily basis. These issues are being transferred into the EV market with the two highest profile vehicles, the Tesla and Volt, providing way more car, and ultimately consuming way more resources, than people need.
Instead of building/buying cars whose full capabilities we might only utilize a few times a year, we need to be buying a tool that meets our needs the other 98% of the time, and then improvise when that 2% presents itself. Maybe this buying a short-range EV but keeping a gas vehicle around for long trips or renting one once or twice a year when needed. If you rarely drive more than 50 miles a day, get an EV with a 75 mile range instead of a 300 mile range and save 75% of the lithium resources needed for batteries.
Dialing back consumption will solve so many of today's and tomorrow's problems: tight oil supplies, maxed out electric grids, water shortages, pollution, CO2 emissions, obesity, financial stability, lithium supply etc. Of course, this concept of buying only what one needs, and it's close relative living within one's means, are very foreign to our society today. Plus it requires a bit of thought/effort on occasion.
Posted by: M T
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09-Oct-2008
64302
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I would not worry about lithium shortages yet. We will have battery shortages before that. Shortages caused not by lack of lithium, but by lack of manufacturing capacity. There is not enough of that capacity to make enough of the big batteries that electric cars require.
Posted by: john
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18-Oct-2008
64458
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Can lithium from 'old' batteries be recycled? I know it would be some years before this would be a significant source as the projected battery life is around 10 years.
Posted by: Ted Reynolds
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18-Dec-2008
65205
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For a critique of Tahil´s main arguments, please see my articles: http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1457, and http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1480
Posted by: Juan Carlos Zuleta
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07-Jan-2009
65448
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I can hardly see batteries with expensive , almost precious metals going to landfill in the U.S.A., a country where if you park your car overnight in the wrong neighborhood, you will find your catalytic converter sawed off and sold for the metals it contains by vandals! We will have to lock down lithium batteries of all sorts, and give them traceable serial numbers as well! This IS America!
Posted by: Bruce Miller
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