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EV World Open Access Article |

HEVT has developed a retrofit electric drive system that allows the Ford F150 pickup truck to operate in electric-only mode. If mass produced, the cost could be made affordable for many commercial applications and some consumers.
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Gas Guzzlers: Crush 'Em or Convert 'Em?
Economic analysis of proposal to convert large, gas-guzzlers to partial-electric drive
By Felix Kramer & Ron Gremban
Open Access Article Originally Published: October 02, 2008
Introduction by Felix Kramer, CalCars Founder
Analysis by Ron Gremban, CalCars Technical Lead
CalCars and Andy Grove have been proposing a major focus on converting "PSVs" (large internal combustion engine gas guzzling Pickups, SUVs and Vans) so they run partially on electricity. http://www.calcars.org/ice-conversions.html Here we address some of the key non-economic issues in doing so. This analysis starts off pretty simply, and gets to some important numbers in the summary. If you get the first half, don't worry if you decide to skip the technical details in the second half.
Many people agree it's a good idea but are not sure it's practical. They ask questions including, "Can there be a business case? Is it realistic to imagine converting millions of vehicles in less than five years? Can the retrofit infrastructure and component supply chain (batteries/motors) scale up rapidly enough?" Part of the answer to these questions involves whether we are operating with the same urgency and can muster the national will we had in 1943, when we stopped building cars and trucks to tanks and planes -- and after auto industry leaders told FDR they couldn't build 30,000 planes in one year, they built 120,000.
Many people also say -- and we fully agree -- that it's important to get incentives and disincentives right. And we need new advertising messages, and short-term rental deals, so these large vehicles are purchased and used by people who really need them -- not by those who own a big vehicle they use only occasionally to tow a boat, fill with gear, or go off-road.
When we explain that today's PSVs stay on the road for several decades (10-15 years in US, another 10-20 when resold internationally) we often hear the suggestion, from those who see plug-in cars coming within the next five years, "why not just crush the gas-guzzlers and replace them with new large efficient PHEVs?"
Many states have "cash for clunkers" programs, but they are limited in scope. Significant expansion of these programs will have unintended consequences in distorting the resale market, nationally and internationally (as thoughtfully discussed at Freakonomics: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/08/no-cash-for-clunkers/ .) Of course, we do want carmakers to mass-produce new PHEV PSVs. But many of the same scaling issues apply: can carmakers build enough of them fast enough to reduce petroleum use and thereby improve our prospects on energy security and climate change? That brings us back to our original idea: quickly start to retrofit the fleet, starting with many of the 80 million PSVs in the U.S.
Even if it were possible to crush and replace many of these cars, there is one important underlying question that we haven't been able to answer until now. We haven't known how much energy it takes to build a car, and how much you're thereby throwing away when you crush an old car that operates perfectly well and could be converted into a PHEV PSV.
Now CalCars' Technology Lead Ron Gremban has investigated that question and come up with some answers. We hope you will help distribute this message widely, and that some of you will continue the effort we've begun in developing this model, including the spreadsheet mentioned below that's available at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-crush-or-convert-icevehicles-080930.xls .
NOTE: This document does NOT address economic costs and payback -- only energy and CO2, which are entirely independent of economic incentives and other policy or business issues!
Summary
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14 comments so far...
02-Oct-2008
64158
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When I first heard Andy Grove's idea of converting existing internal combustion engine cars to plug-in hybrids, I thought it was nuts. Now I'm not sure. Not quite convinced that it will work, but close. Good to see this analysis that spells it out.
Posted by: john
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03-Oct-2008
64170
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I tried to get a grant from Google.org last year, but was not selected. My business plan for converting 4 door mid size trucks, and many links to articles that prove that a serial hybrid truck would be 4 times more fuel efficient are on my website. Conversions would pay for themselves.
Let's get this party started!
http://www.transtexastrucks.com
John Penry - Seguin, Texas
Posted by: John Penry
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03-Oct-2008
64174
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It's good to know when the energy 'break-even' happens, but it would be better to know the total GHGs saved over the life of the SUVs (if they had not been converted or crushed). That's because if the rate of GHGs saved is faster for crushing the SUVs and replacing them with production PHEVs (as I suspect it is), then you could end up with larger net benefit from crushing even though you reached 'break even' faster by retrofitting. If you are interested, this concept is spelled out in how CARB does their analysis of the costs/benefits of their car crushing program. (Try searching for 'Voluntary Accelerated Vehicle Retirement' or VAVR).
Posted by: Andrew Burnette
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04-Oct-2008
64200
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I very much agree that converting old gas guzzlers to efficient vehicles should be a high priority, primarily because that is the fastest way to reduce Foreign Oil Dependence and lower GHG emissions - vastly more effective than the Pickens or Gore Energy Fantasy Schemes.
However, CalCars has a fixation on the PHEV. I regard the PHEV as an interim vehicle of little significance, a toy for the wealthy. It is dubious that many who can afford a $40,000 vehicle, will bother plugging in for a cheaper 10 to 40 mile electric range, since the fuel economy will be excellent running as a series HEV anyways. The optimal future will consist primarily of BEV’s and Series HEV’s, with the option of an extended range BEV, which would use about a 30 kwh battery pack and a small 10 to 20 kw continuous rated generator. Detroit proved that it can produce HEV’s with 70-80 mpg, in the late 1990’s with the Supercar Initiative:
Supercar: The tanking of an American dream
Undoubtedly, those HEV drivetrains could be improved with the use of modern electronics and motor technology. And the use of Methanol / DME extreme efficiency engines can further improve those numbers. See:
EPA 43% Peak Efficiency Methanol Engine with Low Emissions and a Wide Island of High Efficiency
It would not be difficult for Automakers or Auto Parts Suppliers to produce standardized series hybrid conversion kits for common fuel guzzling vehicles on the road today. The necessity is government intervention to jumpstart and subsidize the program. In order to be economical, production in automotive volumes would be necessary. The optimal configuration would be the series hybrid, with a 50 to 100 hp electric motor, (Brushless Synchronous Permanent Magnet or an Induction Motor), a 3 to 5 kwh Li-Ion/LiFePO4 or NiMH battery pack, and a high efficiency 20 to 50 hp engine/generator. Best to use a standard European TDI diesel engine, which can also be modified to run more efficiently and cleaner on Methanol, with simpler, cheaper Spark Ignition and Port Fuel Injection. Remove the engine, transmission and fuel system from the convert vehicle. And remove the ludicrous NOx emission standard (1/6th of Europe’s) for North American Diesel Cars and Small Trucks, that was put there by greedy Oil Interests – successfully blocking the use of high efficiency TDI Diesel engines in North America. Using the European standard for NOx, in the type of high efficiency series HEV’s that I am proposing, would not significantly increase NOx levels. Most of the NOx comes from Coal Power Plants and poorly tuned, inefficient Truck Engines, that curiously the EPA does very little about. It would be easy to catch the extreme offenders, which produce the bulk of the emissions, with automated roadside monitoring stations.
There will be a severe shortage of batteries for a decade or more, so the PHEV will be an ineffective method to reduce dependence on Foreign Oil and cut Emissions. A PHEV will require several times more battery capacity than the series HEV. The conversion I am recommending, would easily be less than half the cost of the PHEV conversion, and much more feasible. The converted vehicle need not be high performance, just a cheap way for cash strapped, frugal consumers, suffering in a declining economy, who can’t afford even a new car, never mind an expensive PHEV, to get from point A to point B with.
And Automakers could easily make much higher efficiency engines if they weren’t so focused on helping out their Oil Buddies, by forcing us to waste fuel like it will last forever. The Prius Atkinson Engine is an example of what can be done. Other examples:
The 50% efficient, low emissions, Liquid Piston HEHC engine
The Velozzi 200 mpg Series HEV with Micro-Turbine Engine/Generator
The Velozzi 200 mpg Ultra-Light High Performance Series HEV
The 45% efficient, ultra-lightweight, FreePistonPower Engine/Generator – MegaBucks Detroit couldn’t come up with this?
The RadMax Rotary Diesel Engine
The StarRotor 40-65% Efficient Brayton Cycle Engine
John Westlund explains how the Government had to pay Detroit to build 60-80 mpg HEVs in the 90’s, which they easily did, and pocketed most of the cash, without offering the vehicles for sale.
Posted by: Warren Heath
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04-Oct-2008
64208
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Responding to posting #4: We're in basic agreement once you recognize (as do most automotive journalists and engineers) that a "series hybrid" or an "extended range electric vehicle" as GM calls it IS in fact, a series PHEV. When an all-electric vehicle makes more sense, we're delighted: displacing the most fossil fuels with electricity is the goal.
I am bewildered by the statement that a PHEV will require too large a battery. Parallel PHEVs can often use smaller batteries than series because the engine can assist, and they use smaller batteries than EVs. Along with solving what GM calls the "range anxiety problem," this is why they're a valuable transitional solution on the way to EVs as batteries improve in energy density and cost.
CalCars is "fixated" on PHEVs whenever they are practical. The energy, cost and retrofit issues in converting a vehicle to a PHEV (or building a new vehicle) will point to the optimal solution in each case. In some cases it may make sense to remove or keep the existing internal combustion egnine. We wrote this article to address the total energy issues involved.
-- Felix Kramer, Founder, CalCars.org
Posted by: Felix Kramer
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07-Oct-2008
64251
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Here we go down the slippery slope again. This is, or is SUPPOSED to be, the United States of America, aka the only nation on the planet that embraces personal FREEDOM. The title of the article that got me here said something to the effect of "should WE crush psv's or convert them?" WHO, is this "WE" you so flippantly refer to. Why would you WANT to put SOMEONE in power over your life to TELL you what you are ALLOWED to drive?
Being that this IS the United States, and that George Washington IS dead, having been the last unselfish politician this country EVER had, ANOTHER bureaucrat IS NOT the answer.
If SOMEONE wants to and can afford to drive a car with the fuel economy of a TEREX TITAN, by all means, more power to him. HE, individually, is paying for it...not ALL of us, and it SHOULD be their freedom of choice that determines it-not some failed J.D. who ran for office and hit the public gravy train and CERTAINLY NOT someone that he appoints.
Posted by: David Spurlock
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07-Oct-2008
64265
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'According to the models, the average conventional internal combustion engine vehicle is made up of 61.7 percent steel, 11.1 percent iron, 6.9 percent aluminum, 1.9 percent copper/brass, 2.9 percent glass, and around 13.6 percent plastic/rubber.' by weight or by volume?
Posted by: W S
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10-Oct-2008
64320
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When does 'range anxiety' set in? I've been driving my solar-charged EV for 2 1/2 years, 9000 miles, and have not experienced it yet. Does it go with the 'EV Grin'? I expect my 27 year old EV to last at least another 20 years.
Posted by: John Spradley
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05-Oct-2008
64218
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‘…displacing the most fossil fuels with electricity is the goal …’
Felix, displacing the most fossil fuels used in transport – by whatever means is most practical and most rapid – should be THE GOAL. The PHEV is just not going to be of significance in that goal. The Volt being the prime example of that. GM is still ignoring high efficiency engines, and could have put the Volt out at least a year earlier as a Series HEV with a 5 kwh battery pack. Just what is this ‘’E-Flex’’ GM brags about when it doesn’t use it. The Volt EV chassis could easily be made in four versions – the series HEV with a 5 kwh battery pack, the PHEV with the 16 kwh battery pack, an extended range BEV with a 30 kwh battery pack or a BEV with a 40-50 kwh battery pack. Of the above options, the PHEV one that GM has chosen is the absolute worst to achieve THE GOAL. Personally, I think GM recognizes that the Electrification of Transport is inevitable, and created the Volt grudgingly to not be left behind, but co-operated with its Oil Buddies, by making a vehicle that will have negligible impact on Oil Consumption.
‘…bewildered by the statement that a PHEV will require too large a battery. Parallel PHEVs …use smaller batteries than EVs …’
The point I made was the Volt PHEV is a waste of precious batteries which will be in short supply for a decade or more. I really doubt the yuppies who can afford a $40,000 vehicle are going to bother to plugin everyday when it will save them maybe $2 per day – the price of one Cappuccino at Starbucks. Using the 16 kwh Volt battery pack to supply three Series HEV Volts would be much more efficient use of that resource – to accomplish THE GOAL. And at least with the BEV, or the extended range BEV, you can be assured that owners will Plug-In. Series-Parallel HEV’s like the Prius are also excellent to accomplish THE GOAL – and do use less batteries, but are also more expensive to manufacture, more complex, less flexible and can be less efficient.
‘…CalCars is "fixated" on PHEVs whenever they are practical. The energy, cost and retrofit issues in converting a vehicle to a PHEV …’
Saying CalCars is fixated on PHEV’s is a bit tongue-in-cheek on my part, but I still say the PHEV is the worst way to convert the Old Fuel-Guzzlers. Why?:
1) people won’t bother plugging them in, thus wasting precious resources needlessly.
2) the fuel consumption benefit is insignificant compared to the added cost and resources utilized.
3) the Plug-In infrastructure hasn’t been developed yet, which once again limits the usefulness of the PHEV – notably for apartment dwellers.
4) the people who we want to use the converted fuel guzzlers, won’t be able to afford the more expensive PHEV conversion – especially since battery prices will remain excessive likely for another decade, due to high demand.
5) trying to add Plug-in to a vehicle with that humungous engine, would be a very difficult and dubious effort. An engine – engine/generator swap would be necessary.
My conclusion, yes we probably both agree that converting old vehicles to electric drive is the fastest way to accomplish the goal of cutting emissions and oil imports as fast-as-possible and as-cheaply-as-possible. My position is the best convert is either a pure BEV, a BEV with a smaller battery pack and a small, standardized, mass-produced, high-efficiency removable generator for those with ‘’range anxiety’’ or best of all the Series HEV conversion using the smallest battery pack and a mass produced Motor Package designed to fit specific Vehicles, and standardized, interchangeable high efficiency Engine/Generator Modules, Driver Interface Modules, Battery Packs and Power Electronics Modules.
Posted by: Warren Heath
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06-Oct-2008
64239
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Converting an old vehicle into a PHEV is a good idea but does it really matter in the long run. After all, a vehicle has an average lifespan that doesn’t exceed a decade, so whatever happens, on average all the cars here today will be out of service in 2018. It is essentially the new vehicles that make a difference. We must avoid, at all cost, that new non plug-in hybrids get build and placed on the road today. This means that laws must be passed that prohibit the homologation of non plug-in hybrid vehicles. By doing so, the car manufacturers will still be able to sell their existing standard models, but won’t be tempted to start the design from scratch of new standard vehicles like most of them still do.
When we went from the steam locomotive to the electric locomotive, we didn’t convert old steam locomotives but we simply stopped making new ones. So today, we must stop making standard vehicles, by refusing their homologation, and start to make only plug-in hybrids.
In simple words; if you have made a mistake, don’t do it again and start doing the right thing. Perhaps have sorrow but does it really matter?
Posted by: Patrick Leonard
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10-Oct-2008
64311
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In partial answer to several comments:
People WILL plug in PHEVs, because electricity is not only more convenient (fewer visits to gas stations) and better for the environment and national security (more and more people actually care!), but also because it costs less than the equivalent of $1/gallon.
PHEVs are currently more effective than HEVs because they not only use gasoline more efficiently but also displace gasoline with electricity. My rule of thumb is that a well-designed PHEV charged and fully discharged every day can offset 50 gallons of gasoline (with 350 kWh of grid electricity) per year per kilowatt-hour of battery capacity vs. a similar standard ICE, and 35 gallons vs. a more efficient HEV. 500 gallons saved over 10 years at $4/gallon less $350 for electricity amounts to $1650 saved per kWh of battery capacity, already above current retail prices of around $1200/kWh. And the infrastructure for many people is merely an ordinary wall outlet in one's personal or apartment garage or carport.
PHEVs are currently more effective than EVs because, due to driving variability and range anxiety, EVs must have significantly more range than is consistently used every day. For EVs or PHEVs, that EV range currently costs around $300(car) - 600(SUV) per mile -- $60-120k for 200 miles vs. $6k-12k for 20 miles! And yet a 20-mile PHEV can displace half as much gasoline per year as a 200-mile EV! As battery prices decrease, longer EV ranges will make more sense, until the ICE eventually becomes an obsolete boat anchor.
The average lifespan of a vehicle in California is 17 years (not 10 years, as per #7), then it is often sold internationally (e.g. to Mexico) rather than crushed. As Patrick Leonard says, it is critical that we stop building non-plug-in vehicles (except for certain specialties such as long-distance tractor-trailers) ASAP, as each vehicle is a commitment to a huge amount of total oil consumption. His idea of beginning by refusing to approve new non-plug-in designs is brilliant and should be promoted diligently to the California Air Resources Board and the appropriate federal agencies once we have a amenable administration (however, it could also backfire by encouraging extended production of existing designs). But no matter how fast auto manufacturers switch, conversions are the only way a significant proportion of our vehicles can be plug-in by 2020, when oil will be far dearer and the IPCC says we must have well over 30% GHG reductions despite expected growth in miles traveled.
Although 'we' (CalCars) do favor CAFE-like manufacturer requirements, we are not advocating mandates to personal behavior. However, we do believe that incentives and disincentives are in order to help the market to reflect social costs not otherwise built into the cost of consuming fossil fuels, which instead are still being subsidized. However, those will merely help speed the inevitable, as supplies of gasoline get increasingly dear and unreliable. Already, the cost of ICE vehicle conversion into PHEVs, in volume and without incentives except for financing, could be less than the fuel savings over 10 years of continued vehicle life.
Re. comment #3, my rough calculation is that breakeven for overall GHG emissions roughly follows that for total energy. Gasoline displacement breakeven (#6's goal), however, occurs approximately five times as fast (1600 miles for conversions vs. 8600 miles for replacement vehicles)! Check out my referenced spreadsheet for more details.
Posted by: Ron Gremban, CalCars' Tech Lead
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24-Nov-2008
65035
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@ Warren Heath
I'll address your item #3:
Yes, the infrastructure exists. The US has millions and millions of outside electric outlets ready to go this second. We can perfect the system as electric drive vehicles get mainstream market penetration, which takes about a decade after there are first dozens of thousands of them on the road.
I have a plug-in electric drive vehicle that I use as my daily driver regular commuter (26 miles), am a renter, and do not have any problems at all plugging it in whenever I want. What electric drive vehicle do you own, as a renter, that you are having problems plugging in? Depending on your answer, I can give you the most appropriate, helpful suggestions for you to work easiest with your electric drive vehicle.
Posted by: Zero X Owner
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26-Nov-2008
65062
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@#8:
When someone chooses to buy and drive a TEREX TITAN, that person DEFINITELY IS NOT paying for ALL of it. The price of gas does not include the environmental and medical costs of exposing the public to its myriad contaminants and pollutants. These costs are difficult to quantify. Also, people are clueless and have no appreciation for how potent gasoline is, priced cheaply as it is. At 132 MJ/gal, not much comes close. For these reasons, gasoline should be priced MUCH higher.
Posted by: Wesley L
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15-Aug-2010
91990
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I hope that these cars will be mass produced, the cost of its autoparts could be made affordable for many commercial applications and some consumers. That would be really great news.
Posted by: Dale Davis
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