Questions

Are there sufficient Lithium reserves to replace all existing fossil fuel cars (not trucks) in the next 20 to 30 years and to account for growth in the number rof vehicles on the road and keep going?

How much will it cost to replace the Lithium batteries or pack in a car once it dies? Will it really be cheaper than Gasoline over time? At current gas prices my Toyota Yaris costs $90 per month or $5400 per 5 years (for comparison, assuming a Li-Ion battery pack will last 5 years). I guess maintenance on electric cars may be lower so perhaps actual oprating costs for gasoline versions are slightly higher. I have seen prices for a new Li-Ionbattery between $8000 and $10000 not to mention service costs for installing the new pack. Definetly not less than gasoline and it's a one time financial hit unless you start saving for it when you first buy the car, or just plan to replace the car every 5 years (wasteful in my oppinion).

I am of the belief that Li-Ion, specifically for the auto sector, is a dead-end technology and at best (if at all) a stop gap until something better comes along. I believe that too much effort is being put into this technology especially for the automotive sector. The cost of new Li-Ion cars will be beyond the reach of most people for the forseeable future. This will be made worse as the demand for Lithium rises and so will it's price and consequently the price of these cars.

Fuel cells are a far more elegant solution. This technology has been proven to have a much lower impact on the environment than all other viable energy sources for automobiles. Hydrogen is plentiful and easily processed. Far cleaner than most other technologies, the by product is steam (water). Why not put more effort into this technology and developing it to make it fully viable for use in the auto industry?
Seems to me that perhaps there are other agendas out there that appear more attractive for some reason or other. I should rather say, someone stands to make money out of this one, that's why it's getting the attention!!!!

However, in an email sent to Bill Moore, others, and me on June 15, 2008, he makes clear that 1.4kg of lithium carbonate is required per kWh battery capacity and that the claim that either 0.43 or 0.46 kg of lithium carbonate per kWh is sufficient assumes an unachievable (83%) efficiency level and for that reason "is a canard".

Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries, which seem to be the front runner in the cost per kWh stored arena, only require an *eigth of the Lithium other Lithium based batteries require, so I imagine .18kg of Lithium Carbonate per kWh is both realistic and likely.

*http://www.thunder-sky.com/technical_en.asp?id=345&typeid=81&orderby=1

Bob,

You are correct.  Please note that  I had already incorporated this important piece of information into my presentation at the Lithium Supply & Markets Conference on January 28th in Santiago, Chile.  Unfortunately, this paper is available at the Industrial Minerals web site only for suscribers.  I hope to publish it soon at EV World.Com. 

I think the points Juan Carlos Zuleta Calderón outlined were very relevant and important.

There are a few more general points that need to be wrapped up:

Resource Figures:

There is so much detailed analysis at the moment of out of date figures for such an important argument, that a conclusion of Li resource amounts will be unclear for years to come.

The best figures you will get are from the leading producers, which are few - SQM, Chemtall, SCL Chile, Talison and Keliber.

The USGS are very good with figures like these, but they do not have the time or resources to obtain accurate enough resource data for such a discussion.

So to make a definite argument on whether Li is or whether Li isn’t the next-gen power source, is not possible.

Li is in its embryonic stage:

China, Middle East, Australia, South America salars – in the scheme of things all of these are untapped, yes, even the salars of South America.

The industry, and particularly Meridian Resources, have only taken a real interest in Li in the past three years. Li is something Industrial Minerals magazine has been covering for the last 40 years, and it is fair to say it is only now people and standing up and taking note.

This means investment into exploration and accurate resource figures has not been large, let alone extensive – this is only happening now. So global resources figures of today are not good enough, but resource figures in three years time will provide a clearer picture.

Other sources:

Where I would agree with Tahil is with his points on extracting Li from alternative sources – Seawater I don’t think will happen, but clays (Turkey, Bigadic boron deposit) may.

More significantly, do not forget hard rock Li sources – Talison is back on track and rumours that SQM are interested continue, look out for Keliber in Finland. Success at these two sources will just encourage more companies to become involved in hard rock, European sources nearer to the end battery market.

Technological advances:

The strides Li has made in the last two years is equals if not eclipses the last ten years in the industry. The point? The next five years will be even more interesting.

As interest grows, more companies become involved, competition increases, and processing techniques improve (rapidly). This improvement in refining technology will be far more important in the coming years than any touted Li recycling methods. Simon Moores,
Posted by: Simon Moores