Open Access Article Originally Published: May 12, 2008
Why do most first-time electric vehicle (EV) buyers decide to make the switch to clean, reliable electric transportation? Are they trying to limit the amount of smog-forming pollutants they emit?
Nope.
Are they looking for the most energy-efficient vehicle available? No way. Are they searching for ways to reduce their carbon footprint?
Not even close.
In fact, most people who buy their first electric vehicle are increasing their carbon footprint when they do so. That’s because almost every electric vehicle sold in the world today is the first motorized vehicle the buyer has ever owned. Every day in China, thousands and thousands of electric bicycles and scooters are sold to people who are “upgrading” from bicycles or walking shoes.
I recently spent two weeks traveling all over China on business. The huge numbers of people traveling on various forms of two-wheeled electric vehicles were simply staggering. In Suzhou City, about fifty miles outside of Shanghai, electric bicycles and scooters outnumbered passenger automobiles by at least ten to one. At rush hour, the right lanes of the streets looked like rivers of electric vehicles. It was clear that when a worker in that area goes looking for a commuter vehicle, the default vehicle will be electric-powered. Buying something that is powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE) is outside the norm.
I saw a broad range of EV choices available and in use. The majority used lead-acid batteries, although use of lithium-ion batteries was on the rise. Most of the EVs had two wheels, although I also saw many electric tricycles used for hauling larger loads. Almost all of them used small motors mounted in the hub of one of the wheels. The smallest motors produced about 100 Watts (W) of power, but the majority of electric bicycles used motors in the 180-250W range.
Scooters had somewhat larger motors, but none of them produced more than one horsepower (746W). Compare that to American automobiles producing at least 100 horsepower, and you can begin to see why electric bicycles are such efficient vehicles compared to other alternatives.
Many people rode small folding electric bicycles with 16” or 20” wheels. This puzzled me until I talked to one of the locals. He explained that the average family of three (remember the “one child per family” law) lives in an apartment with about 300 square feet of floor space. In the cities, virtually all the apartments are above the ground floor because the street level is reserved for commercial and industrial space. So, all these commuters need to be able to haul their vehicles up one to ten flights of stairs and stow them in very limited spaces. An electric folding bicycle fits this need perfectly.
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10 comments so far...
18-May-2008
61734
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I'm a stock broker for a major firm and if you looking to make big returns, a company that has a great future in the EV industry is Advance Battery Technology. It trades on the NASDAQ, ticker symbol "ABAT". ABAT has the best product and has a prosperous future in EV Bikes, as well as vehicles.
Posted by: steve anderson
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12-May-2008
61631
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Very good article. Thank you for doing it.
jl
Posted by: Josh Landess
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12-May-2008
61635
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I've been commuting on an electric bike for over 5 years in the city of Philadelphia; Though the batteries have been somewhat problematic at times, I find that an electric bike is, without a doubt, the best way to get around this city within a 10-15 mile radius for the adventurous individual young or old, fit or not-so-fit. It is fun, envigorating, economic, liberating (no tickets, registration, fees), most often faster than driving (what traffic?) and pretty good environmentally (a normal bike is the greenest). Bike all year round and you enjoy the beauty of all the seasons and notice the beautiful scenery and architecture (in philadelphia; along the kelly drive on the schuylkill river) at speeds where you can actually take-in their subtleties (as opposed to cars or transit). I am surprised I don't see more electric bikes; I have only seen maybe 8 others out riding over 5 years. I should hope I see more this year and the next and so-on.
Posted by: Ben N
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13-May-2008
61642
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Great article....while our dollar TANKS....the big 2.5 are not resurrecting their
Ranger EV
EV1
Caravan EPICs
This doesn't make sense!
Posted by: ant cimino
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29-May-2008
61947
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Thank you for this provocative work.
I have examined its arguments and themes, from a markedly different viewpoint, in an article entitled 'eBikes + China = Hope' posted today here:
http://www.ebikesdaily.com
Again, thanks for stimulating so much thought!
Posted by: Jon Bleiman
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13-May-2008
61646
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Not to worry. GM is building the Volt and calling it an EV. In truth, it's for the CAFE merits so they can sell more Hummers.
Here's hoping Toyota revives their RAV4 EV.
Posted by: Ken Grubb
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13-May-2008
61652
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Very good example to us what China is doing.
Government has stated they want 1 Million electric cars made in China !
Meanwhile,back in Manitoba, Canada, we await the passage of a bill allowing electric cars to be driven on city streets when a Canadian electric car company makes them and exports to the U S A ?
Which area of the world is moving forward the fastest ?
Posted by: Kenneth Roy
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14-May-2008
61673
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A wonderful article--especially for mentioning the giant pink elephant in our overcrowded livingrooms: population. Every environmentalist must start urging sustainable population levels. Gaylord Nelson, the founder of Earth Day, himself said that population was a significant element of environmentalism. 'The bigger the population gets, the more serious the problems become ... We have to address the population issue ... It can be done.'
Posted by: Zan Dubin Scott
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14-May-2008
61681
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This is a beautifully written piece of journalism. Forbes has detailed exactly what will happen when proper economic incentives are utilized. We haven't really begun doing so in the US. The recent price increases are actually more about geopolitical instability and commodity trading than inherent costs.
Once Obama is President...we'll begin to seriously reverse the incentives given to carbon based energy and instead, provide them to renewable energy. This is exactly what Congress has been trying to do with the bill extending the solar tax credits. It would be paid for with the $18 billion we're currently giving the oil companies in tax breaks.
Once this process begins, the cost of dirty energy will gradually rise, and the cost of renewable energy will continue to fall. Efficiency will rule in the market causing the switch to electricity to gain speed worldwide.
What Forbes saw in China is proof we're on our way.
Paul
Posted by: Paul Scott
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15-May-2008
61704
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I just returned this past Monday evening (having left hours before the China earthquake) from 3+ weeks in China.
I am an EV dealer in Denver (electric cars and trucks), and observed the same things stressed in this very good article. Although we don't have an indoor showroom at the present, I want our dealership to look at the possibility of selling electric bikes, mopeds and scooters as soon as possible.
I think those electrified two-wheelers are a great way to get US people to think more seriously about other forms of all-electric transportation.
Three cheers for this article.
Posted by: Stu MacPhail
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