For fossil energy one must factor in the energy return on energy invested resulting in a supply asymptote beyond which economic retrieval is not possible. The equations of state for the two do not correlate.

Clearly, reserves for each are a monotonic function of price, however, the cost of oil is also a major input into the cost of oil, even more so as EROEI increases, the same cannot be said of lithium, as the price of oil increases, higher priced lithium becomes MORE economic.

The cost of lithium is a small fraction of the cost of the battery. An increase in the price of lithium sufficient to stimulate adequate supply will result in only a small increase in battery prices.
Posted by: Todd Goehring

20% of existing Li2CO3 production is used by batteries - 15,000 tonnes p.a. That’s up from 9% of production in 2000. Laptop computer and portable electronics sales are growing by over 20% p.a. - so 4 more years compound growth will at least double electronics LiIon demand; in some countries, it’s more like 50% p.a - laptop sales grew 100% in India from 05-06. Staggering growth. The aerospace industry is adopting Al-Li alloys. The price of Li2CO3 went up 20% in 05 and 40% in the first quarter of 06 alone. EVs have competing demand from other industrial Lithium carbonate users.

The USGS put the Li metal equivalent Reserve Base at 11 Million tonnes, including hard rock minerals. That’s about 58 Megatonnes of Lithium CARBONATE. I actually put it somewhat higher. But that’s not what you can recover. For your information, at the Salar de Atacama, extracting where the Lithium brine is the most concentrated, they achieve 42% recovery efficiency. So 60% of the Li in the Salar won’t be recovered - without more expensive techniques. As production goes on, the remaining concentration falls of course - diminishing returns. That’s why Clayton Lake is in decline.

Using an optimisitic 50% recovery efficiency from the brine lakes (conditions at other lakes are not even as favourable as at Atacama), one can realistically say we could ultimately produce about 35 Megatonnes of Lithium Carbonate. This is the URR - Ultimate Recoverable Reserves.

60 Million cars a year with a 10kWh battery - requires 840,000 tonnes of Lithium Carbonate per year. 10 times curernt production and a 2.4% depletion rate of URR. Car sales are growing, pressure for larger battery size will grow and Li concentration in the lakes will be falling by 2.4% per year. So you have to keep adding production facilities to maintain production.

As for the Lithium hard rock minerals, they are only 15% of the Lithium Metal Equivalent Reserve Base. So even if it was economically and energetically competitive with Brine, they do not add much.

Recycling doesn’t come into it until the motor vehicle parc has been equipped with batteries. So if the 220M cars in North America each have a 10kWh battery, they need 3 Million tonnes of Li2CO3 to equip them. That’s 10% of the URR just for North America - and recycling will never be 100% efficient.

You might like to know that Lithium Chloride production from the brines and salt lakes is not even the main bulk product: LiCl and then Li2CO3 production is dwarfed by potassium chloride, potassium sulphate and other minerals depending on the lake composition. Apart from the Salar de Atacama, extraction of LiCl alone would not be economic, though it is the single most profitable mineral extracted.
Posted by: William Tahil

What is clear is that there's enough lithium for the next several years. And let's be really honest and admit that companies haven't really been exploring for new sources of lithium the way we have been exploring for new sources of oil. I have yet to see a single company that is 'exploring for lithium'. So that is one factor that can make this whole discussion irrelevant in the long run.

Also, I'm pretty sure that it is way easier to switch an EV from one battery type to another (like the NiMH to Li-ION conversions being done to some Prius') compared to switching an ICE vehicle from one fuel type to another.

The way I see it, this debate would be something to be concerned about if hybrids and EVs were *required* to use Lithium batteries. But that's not reality and it's certainly not the big picture.

www.moltechpower.co.uk/pdfs/Transportation%20Regulations%20for%20LiIon%20Batteries%20TM01.pdf

Calculation is 0.3 grams equivalent lithium content per Amp/Hour of lithium-ion cell with LiCoO2 cathode.

Capacity = 1000 Whr / 3.6 V/cell = 278 Ahr

Li content = 278 Ahr * 0.3g = 83.3 g Li

Li carbonate = 83.3 g Li / 0.189 = 441 g Li2CO3 / kWhr

LiFePO4 Lithium Iron phosphate cathode cell requires half the lithium content as LiCoO2 cathode cells. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery (Safety)

Li content LiFePO4 cell is 83.3 / 2 = 41.7g Li

Li carbonate = 41.7 g Li / 0.189 = 220 g Li2CO3

This agrees with the 250 grams calculated preveiously.
Posted by: R Smith

I invite you to the Yahoo message board for Energy Conversion Devices. ECD and Chevron own the joint venture Cobasys which makes NiMH batteries and recently partnered with A123 Systems to package their lithium batteries. http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/ENER?action=q&board=ENER
Posted by: rbtbob enerinvestor

R Smith,

Do you agree with the others on the 1.4KG/kwh figure or is figure only for lithium metal polymer? If the figure 41grams/kwh for lithium phosphate, then perhaps the thrust of the article is less important, espceially as its this kind of chemistry that might be used in the auto industry.
Posted by: Nick Flynn

My conclusion of 220g - 250 g of Lithium carbonate per kWhr ( 220g - 250g Li2CO3 / kWhr) was found using two different methods for calculation for a Lithium-Iron-phosphate cathode cell (LiFePO4 has the much improved safety characteristics suitable for electric vehicle use). The 250g value was arrived at by first principles; the 220g was arrived at by transportation regulation requirements for equivalent lithium content of lithium-ion cells (Cobalt oxide cathode). The fact that the two results are so close leads me to believe that my lithium requirements are correct! Mr. Tahil’s article is out by a factor of six! It’s a huge difference, and why I say he has strung together a bunch of half truths with little fact checking and research to reach his peak lithium conclusion. That I think is still weak if you read his whole paper, there are a lot of other things that could be argued against his peak lithium concern. I just picked the most fundamental one first. If this paper had been about peak plutonium use in full cells vehicles, he would not have got an argument out of me!

My conclusion:

1400 g / kWhr Lithium Carbonate is required for lithium metal anode batteries. (Cobalt oxide cathode, I suppose)

250 g / kWhr Lithium Carbonate is required for Iron phosphate cathode batteries. (Carbon anode).

If I’m mistaken, I would like to know how? Mr. Tahil? Anyone? Bueller?

Posted by: R Smith

Lithium Metal batteies that use a pure lithium Metal Anode don't even use that much lithium!

This article is full of shit! He seems to have an interest in Nickel and Zinc and related battery technologies.

He is not nuetrual or unbiased. He did not research this topic at all, and his facts are wrong!

The main limitation on Lithium-Ion battery production has been the price of Cobalt from the Congo and a few other sources! And that has now been overcome by the development of phosphate based cathodes.

Don't Worry, there is no shortage of lithium!

From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium

On Earth, lithium is widely distributed, but because of its reactivity does not occur in its free form. In keeping with the origin of its name, lithium forms a minor part of almost all igneous rocks and is also found in many natural brines. Lithium is the thirty-first most abundant element, contained particularly in the minerals spodumene, lepidolite, petalite, and amblygonite. On average, Earth's crust contains 65 parts per million (ppm) lithium.
Posted by: R Smith

LiCO2: is 1 atom Li=7, 1 atom C=12, 2 atoms O=16. Therefore the mass percent lithium is 7 / (7 + 12 + 32) = 13.7%

So 1.4kg of Lithium Carbonate would contain 192g of pure lithium. For the lightest know metal on earth, with a density of 0.53g/cm3, this gives 362 cubic cm or 0.362 liters /kWhr. So maybe this is accurate for a battery made with a pure lithium metal anode.

This does not apply to a lithium-"Ion" battery that needs only a small fraction of the lithium mass required compared to a pure lithium metal anode version.

The majority of the mass in a lithium-"ion" battery is comprised of the two intercalating active materials for both the anode and cathode neither of which is made with lithium, the two metal current collectors usually made of aluminum and copper foils, the Lithium-"ion" conductive polymer separator, a lithiated salt electrolyte, outer packaging, and connection tabs etc... My guess is the mass of the actual lithium content would likely be one of the smallest masses of any single element within the cell, next to unwanted impurities!

At least that's my non-expert opinion. I would still not publish an article with such a conclusion until I researched more completely my assumptions and calculations furthur!

Posted by: R Smith

In a common cobalt dioxide cell that is commonly only de-lithiated by 50% we would need double this mass of lithium or 96 grams/kWhr. This is more than I thought, but still the new phosphate based materials don't need double the lithium, so they will be around 350 grams of lithium carbonate/kwhr. Which is still one quater of the 1.4 kg stated in the article.

Well Ok, sorry i guess, (my bad, a little), maybe he does have a small point after all. But there is still billions of tones of lithium on the planet and unlike hydrocarbons, the lithium atoms are not destroyed during their use in a battery unlike hydrocarbons that are chemically destroyed in the burning process. The lithium atoms are not consumed and will remain in tact for recycling and reuse long after the battery wears out from its useful life!

Posted by: R Smith

The following link is a May 2000 study put out by ANL (Argonne National Laboratory) for the DOE (US Dept of Energy)

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/149.pdf

On pages 34-35 one can find the following paragraph quote:

“…U.S. government does not stockpile lithium, although the U.S. Department of Energy did have a stock of lithium hydroxide monohydrate. U.S. consumption in 1999 was estimated to be about 2,800 T of contained lithium (USGS 2000). This quantity is equivalent to that required for about 290,000 EVs with Li-ion batteries annually, or about 6 million HEVs. Therefore, significant market penetration by EVs with Li-ion batteries would perturb the market and require expansion of imports or U.S. production. Total world production in 1999 was about 15,000 T of contained lithium (63% in carbonates), and world reserves exceed 12 million T (USGS 2000). Therefore, long-term supply should not be a major concern.”

Using the numbers provided in this report one finds that an average sized EV with a 35kWh battery would require approximately 0.423 kg of lithium total. That would translate to 0.01208 kg/kWh or about 12.1g of lithium per kWh. There should be enough lithium to build about 1.25 Billion EVs or about 25.7 Billion HEVs.

Wayne – http://privatenrg.com
Posted by: Wayne Brown

Oh, that is weird...

I just clicked on the link about half way down this EV World article that is described as the basis or catalyst that drove William Tahil’s to write this paper --- Guess what? ... It is the very same DOE-Argonne report I reference in my comment above!

I wonder how he interpreted 1.4kg of lithium per kWh from the same report where I get 2.1 grams per kWh?
Posted by: Wayne Brown

Thank you for putting up the link to the Argonne report 'Costs of Lithium Ion Batteries for Vehicles'.

This was the report I read in 2005 which first gave me 'Lithium Shock'.

Their analysis was based on the Nissan Altra EV, which had a 32.4kWh Sony LiIon battery, with a Lithium Nickelate cathode.

As you say, the report says US consumption in 1999 was 2,800 Tonnes of contained Lithium Metal, which they computed was enough for 290,000 EVs with LiIon batteries. The size of battery they were talking about was 32.4kWh.

On Page 17 of that report you will see a table which divides 2,800 Tonnes by 292,000 EVs to tell us how much Lithium Metal would be needed for each car. The answer is 9.6kgs.

2,800T = 2,800,000 kgs of Lithium Metal

2,800,000 kgs / 292,000 cars = 9.6 kgs of Lithium metal per car

Battery Size per car = 32.4kWh

Therefore Lithium per kWh = 9.6 / 32.4 = 0.296 kgs per kWh.

Independently, I found that the Avestor Lithium Metal Polymer battery uses 300g of Lithium per kWh – an identical amount.

As you know, the mass of Lithium Carbonate that contains 1kg of Lithium is 5.3 times as much – 5.3 kgs of Li2CO3 contains 1kg of Lithium, from adding the atomic weights of each atom in Lithium Carbonate: 7 + 7 + 12 + 16 + 16 + 16 = 74. And 74 / 14 = 5.3.

So we need 0.296 x 5.3 = 1.57 kgs of Li2CO3 per kWh.

I used a more optimistic 1.4 kgs of Li2CO3 per kWh to allow for some efficiency gains.

So each 9kWh PHEV battery will use 9 x 1.4 = 12.6 kgs or 27.7 lbs of Li2CO3.

So total Lithium Carbonate production last year of 75,000 tonnes would be enough for

75,000,000 kgs / 12.6 = 6,000,000 PHEV 20-30s.

None of that lithium carbonate is available – it's all being used for other applications.

17 Million cars are sold in the USA each year. 60 Million across the world. Total World Lithium Carbonate Production would be enough for 10% of current global car sales with a 9kWh battery.

Talk about oceans and rocks as a source of lithium supply is completely hypothetical. We need to base our strategy on what is Practical and Realistic, what is economic now in mass industrial production, on what we know now, not on hypothetical future ideas that have never been tested or tried outside a laboratory. Seawater is more than 10,000 times as dilute in Lithium as the Salar de Atacama plus other chemical disadvantages. What we do has to be economically and environmentally sound. We can't have 'Green Cars' produced at the expense of yet more irreplaceable wilderness, for a resource that cannot possibly come anywhere close to meeting our needs on a real industrial scale. We must not fall into the same traps as in the past. We must use Joined Up Thinking.
Posted by: William Tahil

As you say, the Avestor cell uses a lithium metal anode and therefore a much higher mass proportion of lithium than an intercalation material would use.

Also, I don’t now where I got the formula of LiCO2 for lithium carbonate. I think i confused it with "lithium-cobalt-dioxide, LiCoO2" But using the correct formula, Li2CO3, I actually get a higher mass percent lithium than I did earlier. My new mass percent lithium = 14g / (14g + 12g + 48g) = 18.9% not 13.7% previously. So at 48g/kWhr we only need 48g / 0.189 = 250g lithium carbonate (100% utility).

Posted by: R Smith

First, I was erroneously using US tons vs. metric tonnes. I checked the actual USGS report & like you the USGS is using metric tonnes so, I apologize for that. I went ahead & ran just the numbers from ANL & the USGS. ANL pretty much sticks with 35kWh as being the average EV Battery size in the article so, I will use that rather than your 32.4 kWh size which overall, should deplete the world reserves faster & provide support for the point you are making in your article being featured here at EV World.

One very important thing we need to figure out though is why the Argonne paper thinks world supply is not a problem. Let’s take a good close look at their numbers & see why.

USGS (2000) says USA used 2,800 tonne in 1999 & that was enough to make 290,000 EVs or 6,000,000 HEVs.

2,800 tonnes = 2,800,000 kg

290,000 EVs X 35 kWh each = 10,150,000 kWh

2,800,000 kg / 10,150,000 kWh = 0.276kg/kWh or 276 g/kWh

276 g/kWh is much closer to R Smith’s final analysis above where he comes up with 250 g/kWh than 1,400 kg/kWh in the above article.

Argonne paper says world reserves exceed 12,000,000 tonne of lithium. Let’s just say there are only 12 million tonne.

12,000,000 tonne = 12,000,000,000 kg

12,000,000,000 kg of lithium / 0.276 kg/kWh = 43,500,000,000 units of lithium available to make 1 kWh each.

43,500,000,000 / 35 kWh per EV = 1,242,857,143 EVs or 1.2 Billion EV.

43,500,000,000 / 9 kWh per PHEV = 4,833,333,333 PHEVs or 4.8 Billion PHEV.

43,500,000,000 / 1.7 kWh per HEV = 25,588,235,294 or 25.6 Billion HEV. (Current Prius HEV has 1.3kWh vs. 1.7kWh shown here)

Just for the fun of it, let’s do the Prius….

43,5000,000,000 / 1.3 kWh per Prius HEV = 33,461,538,462 or 33.5 Billion Prius HEV

The ANL article very clearly states when referencing the world lithium supply; “Therefore, long-term supply should not be a major concern.”

It looks as if the Argonne National Laboratory does not agree with you William. With all due respect to the obviously brilliant man you are William, I am going stay with Argonne on this one.

Best Regards <>
Posted by: Wayne Brown

Hi all,

In the above post I make an error that really should be corrected. Where I wrote:

“276 g/kWh is much closer to R Smith’s final analysis above where he comes up with 250 g/kWh than 1,400 kg/kWh in the above article.”

It should be:

276 g/kWh is much closer to R Smith’s final analysis above where he comes up with 250 g/kWh rather than 1.4 kg/kWh in the above article.

Posted by: Wayne Brown

There is no disagreement at all among the "experts" above. It takes ~ 0.3kg of Lithium/kwh which is equivalent to 1.4kg of Lithium CARBONATE /kwh. The 75,000 tonnes of Lithium CARBONATE produced in the world yearly TODAY is a realistic number, whereas the 12,000,000 tonnes of metallic Lithium(?) estimated world-wide RESERVE is a number that may not be economically or readily available for affordable mass-produced vehicles.

So, William Tahil's position is an accurate one and is still a major cause for concern!
Posted by: Roger Pham

While it is true that the battery is not commerically available now, if the price of lithium becomes prohibitive, one should expect that such technology will be developed.
Posted by: Noah Nehm

The lithium supply-demand issue is much more complicated than portrayed in this article by William Tahil – Problem with Lithium. The lithium industry is controlled by very few players and is quite secretive. In addition it needs real experts to estimate lithium reserves and whether it is economic to extract them. On the lithium demand side many of the numbers published in the industry come from very doubtful sources and have been proven to be inaccurate. Some of the forecasts that have been put out and then widely circulated have no foundation. And regretfully many forecasts for the electric vehicles and the lithium battery for those vehicles fall into this category.

We at TRU have and are continuing to analyse the outlook for lithium on both the supply and demand side of the equation. However, our team includes lithium brine & mineral resource geologists, lithium processing specialists, battery & electric vehicle experts, lithium lubricants veterans, and the like. Our conclusions needless to say are very different from those presented in the paper.

For more information please view http://trugroup.com/Lithium-Battery.html TRU Group Inc – Lithium Consultants
Posted by: Edward R Anderson