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EV WORLD EXCLUSIVE ARTICLE
Toyota RAV4 EV all-electric SUV is now 10 years old
First introduced in 1998, the Toyota RAV4 EV has accumulated more total fleet miles than another other production electric car in the world, seeing millions of miles of service in power company fleets like Southern California Edison and PG&E. Some 1500 were built and some 620 are still in operation, about half in private hands, mainly in California.

RAV4 EV: Exceeding Expectations



By Bill Moore

Toyota's Gary Smith recounts the legacy of the longest running, modern electric car in existence.
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Open Access Article Originally Published: June 20, 2008

Smith replied that there are several important factors preventing this: the cost of nickel has skyrocketed since the inception of the program. Also, the industry has moved beyond that chemistry to a simpler, more powerful technology. What it needs now is more energy density and power, as well as light weight and low costs, and that means lithium ion.

Both Toyota and vehicle owners/lessees have learned from the RAV4 EV experience, Smith continued to explain. He cited the example of the more technically-savvy operators who found a way to tap into the vehicle's electronics so they could better monitor vehicle and battery performance, only to discover that their Palm Pilot software would "negate the battery equalization circuit". Toyota engineers found a way to solve this issue.

He added that they also learned that when an inverter failed, they didn't need to throw the entire unit away, which would be very expensive. Instead, they discovered that certain, relatively-inexpensive components in the inverter were failing. These were easily replaced with more reliable units and the inverters could be put back in service.

Of the 880-odd vehicles that have been removed from service, some -- Smith didn't specify the exact number -- are being warehoused for their parts in order to keep the remaining vehicles on the road as long as possible. Many of them have been "recycled." Some have been refurbished and loaned to various charitable organizations. [EV World was instrumental in arranging for the Monterey Aquarium to acquire one of these vehicles].

Smith stated that Toyota has both a legal and a moral obligation to support the vehicles, but at some point when battery packs begin to seriously degrade and fail, it will no longer be able to service them, mainly because the batteries in them aren't made anymore.

On the question of what has been the average service life of the RAV4 EVs that have been retired, Smith said it varies wildly from private owners who pamper their electric cars, which look and operate like brand new at 50,000 miles, to the meter reader vehicles that are pretty "tired" at 50,000.

Could owners build their own replacement battery packs out of off-the-shelf lithium ion cells, we asked? Smith replied that while such ingenuity wouldn't surprise him, he did note that the electronic management of lithium is completely different from that of NiMH, so it would be a daunting engineering challenge to overcome that barrier.

In terms of servicing the vehicles, at one point Toyota had 26 dealerships that were certified to repair the RAV4 EV, most in California, but several in other states where it also had small fleets. That number is now down to nine, Smith noted. Of the 620 vehicles still in operation, 80% of them are now outside the warranty period. However, Toyota is mindful of the situation and does its best to help the dealership and customer get the vehicle back on the road as expeditiously as possible.

Is there a successor to the RAV4 EV somewhere in the future, we asked?

John Hanson with Toyota's corporate communications office interjected that because of California's re-emphasis on the importance of electric cars at this Spring's Air Resources Board meeting, all manufacturers -- including Toyota -- are reappraising the potential re-introduction of battery electric cars (BEVs).

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46 comments so far...

07-Jul-2008
62604
   SUV Hunter, Got the oil product equation MANY years ago.

The lifecycle of plastics is amazing when you consider the ability to design for it. I was involved in a regrind operation 27 years ago extruding fence posts out of industrial waste. No post-consumer source at the time. Folks though it was nuts. Why do that with all the landfill available??? - HA!

The rising price of fuels in the US is a good thing all said. The US is finally getting it's due lessons. To effect my lifestyle, $6/gallon is where I turn my beloved SUV to the recycle shop. IMHO, that won't happen for 4-5 years.

Back to the start....A $40k EV vehicle is still not for the masses. Count the number of $40k vehicles on the road today and divide by half. That's the EV market at that price point.
Posted by: Frank E


09-Jul-2008
62630
   Lets not forget that big oil bought the patent rights from GM for the NIMH batteries...They are the ones that stoped production of large NIMH batts....They are the ones (big oil) that make you sign a paper saying you wont use these as traction batteries on the highways if you buy a used NIMH battery !! Big oil is going to make people realize that to buy OIL, you must support terrorism, greed, and you can destroy the enviroment for our grandkids without regret. I say if the oil companies buy up patent rights only to sit on them..Make them use it or lose it.
Posted by: Robert Lange

09-Jul-2008
62637
   Robert, your comments are RIGHT ON. Big oil has every intention of manipulating the market to make sure "they" will continue profits at the expense of consumers - either in the US or abroad. Battery technology is cheap considering they can tie up progress for years. A few millions to buy A123 is chump change.

Another way of looking at it is big oil will reap profits from selling the rights to use the technology they've purchased. You think the execs got this figured already??
Posted by: Joel Jenks


01-Jul-2008
62496
   This has been one of the best discussions I've seen on EVWorld. Hope to see more of them.
Posted by: john

02-Jul-2008
62504
   great comments, i think we can all agree that the RAV4 EV is still too high priced of a vehicle for the masses, battery technology is also changing daily and there is no clear winner as of yet, hopefully this will happen in the next few years, series hybrids are the future for the next few years, no doubt in my mind there, oil consumption is increasing in India and China, that is why prices are so high and will continue to rise, our country need to do several things at once, need to focus on battery development, need to build series hybrids, need to double current vehicle MPG ratings, finalize and implement the shale oil conversion process that Shell oil has been working on (a trillion barrels of oil, more than the middle east exists in OUR mountains) saw a report on this the other night, this will get rid of our oil dependance on the middle east, we can do this, we are Americans
Posted by: henry h

08-Oct-2008
64280
   I like driving RAV4. But its not EV. How much is the EV? Can toyota convert a regular RAV4 to EV? I like mine because I already change my emblem color.
Posted by: Karen Martinez

06-Oct-2009
70663
   Wow..I never thought that the Toyota RAV4 would be converted into an electric vehicle. It is amazing that they were able to modify some toyota parts of this RAV4 so that it can be electric powered.
Posted by: Brandon Paul

20-Jun-2008
62300
   Very interesting. I did not know that 880 of the 1,500 RAV4 EVs were out of service. Only 620 left on the road. Too bad.

Wish I had one of these.

Posted by: john

20-Jun-2008
62301
   GeeWiz!There using first generation Li-Poly batteries.Sometimes Toyota seems to have a language barrier and the facts get lost in translation.Their snail's pace must be telling us that they want most of their eggs in the ICE basket.Dosen't Toyota understand how many EVRavs could be sold now with gas prices skyrocketing?The EVRAV compared to a Prius would save annually over $8,000.00 in fuel costs.The extra cost for batteries would pay for itself in 4-5 years.
Posted by: John Hurt

20-Jun-2008
62303
   I just listened to the excellent interview and appreciate your efforts Bill , Thank you for providing us with the answers to questions that we would like to ask if we could.


Posted by: Keith Tomilson


21-Jun-2008
62305
   It is unfortunate to discover almost as many non-facts as "actual" facts. A few items off the top of my head that were in error: . Using the Palm device to read the OBD2 port info does NOT stop the battery equalization process. . None of the cars are under warranty any longer. . The sticker price was just over $42,000.
Posted by: Darell Dickey

21-Jun-2008
62306
   Good article about the best 5-seater electric vehicle ever made, but very painful to read so many innacuracies...

Here are some:

'the EV version looks like any other 1998-2003 RAV4 of the period'

Incorrect. Looks like any 1997-2000 RAV4. That's the body of our EVs. They changed the Body in 2001. Just do a simple google image check.

'Used initially by power company meter readers, the RAV4 EV saw hard, daily service in California with several models wracking up more than 100,000 miles.'

Wracking? Destroying? Ah, you mean Racking....

'Also, the industry has moved beyond that chemistry to a simpler, more powerful technology.'

That's a big lie. Other than Tesla Motors which is not a major auto manufacturer there are no batteries other than NiMH chemistry in any 2008/2009 Hybrid models in showrooms today. 100% Nickel Metal Hydride. Why? It works and it does not explode....

'Palm Pilot software would "negate the battery equalization circuit". Toyota engineers found a way to solve this issue.'

Another lie. No such case ever. All RAVs always equalized OK with or without RAV4 Info.

'mainly because the batteries in them aren't made anymore'

Now Bill Moore should really ask: Why? If these batteries are so great and last so long, why aren't they being made in huge volumes to serve mankind? Well - AFAIK an oil company owns the patents for large format NiMH and it is just sitting on it, doing nothing. Go research what happened with the wonderful PEVE EV-95.

'the RAV4EV stickered at the time for around $43,500' NOT TRUE: $42,500. Minus $13K of state and federal incentives brought the car down to $29,500. Also ask Toyota how many perfectly great cars (Selling at ebay today for almost $70K used) they crushed....The math is simple, about 600...
Posted by: Raquel Alencar


21-Jun-2008
62307
   Thanks to Darrill and Raquel for the corrections, which have been duely noted.

I hope other RAV4EV drivers will share their experiences, good and back, about this remarkable vehicle.

With my apologies to William Shakespeare, "I have come to praise the RAV4 EV, not to bury it."


Posted by: Bill Moore


21-Jun-2008
62308
   If Toyota truly did crush those RAV4 EV units it's a shame. Everyone has been blasting GM for the EV1 snuffing. Toyota is ALSO guilty.

Sorry folks, if I can't get an EV for around $25-30k (USD), it willl never see my driveway.

For that $50-70K EV replacement, I'll be very content to drive my 17 mpg SUV FOREVER!
Posted by: Frank E


21-Jun-2008
62309
   Hardly Toyota's fault crushing them, given the outcome of the lawsuit by the "large oil company" against Panasonic, which made the batteries used in both the RAV and Prius.

Toyota probably had little or no choice in the matter. The Prius is one thing: all the energy it uses ultimately comes from oil. A car that does NOT use oil is another thing entirely...
Posted by: Ben C


21-Jun-2008
62310
   * If Toyota truly did crush those RAV4 EV units _If_ they crushed them? There is no question. Nobody denies that it happened, including Toyota. Crushing was the default fate for lease returns in the early years. * Toyota is ALSO guilty. Yup. Toyota wasn't quite so public nor abusive, but when they could stop their EV program and start "recycling" the vehicles, they certainly did. * Sorry folks, if I can't get an EV for around $25-30k (USD), it will never see my driveway. You may not have a choice for "ever." At today's gas prices you could be saving $5000 per year in gas prices alone! Not even counting the oil changes and tuneups, etc. Think beyond the sticker. There are many plug-in cars that have been announced in your price range. Give it a couple of years. There's no stopping them now.
Posted by: Darell Dickey

21-Jun-2008
62311
   Probably the single most distrubing part of this interview for me was the underlying question: What did Toyota learn from the Rav4EV experience?

The answer, apparently, was that Toyota made the car last too long.

And in all the answers given by Smith, the huge missing part was the input from the actual every-day drivers/owners. What Toyota COULD have learned was huge. Our experience and information were marginalized at best, and used against us at worst. The whole battery equalization process is a good example. We have more real-world data on that situation (about the battery ECU sometimes getting confused in reporting SOC) than Toyota does, and instead of working with us to figure out what is really happening, the drivers are blamed for harming our own cars. We're told that it is a cut and dried case of what process creates the issue. While we have tons of evidence showing that terminating the charge early does NOT correlate with SOC surprises, Toyota's official stance is just the opposite.

I LOVE this car, and we use it every day. It is our primary vehicle. My frustration is with how Toyota has treated their early-adopting customers. Instead of calling us a "cult" how about calling us "amazingly loyal customers?"
Posted by: Darell Darell


21-Jun-2008
62313
   Don't you just LOVE interviews with corporate shills who obviously know nothing about that which they blather on and on about? Don't you just LOVE that they still say batteries aren't here yet, though Henry Ford himself put his wife in an EV as he thought they were safer and more reliable than his ICE cars. The only thing that amazes me more than the reach of the oil industry, is the American public's refusal to believe that all modern wars are fought for oil. We waste. They profit. Every night I pray to God for $10/gal. gas as that's obviously the only thing that will wake Americans up enough to demand the technology that's been sitting on the shelf for the last forty years. Don't forget GE had a freeway capable EV in 1965- but their two largest customers convinced them to not bring it to market. And those two industries were?...the US auto and oil industries.
Posted by: J. Marvin Campbell

21-Jun-2008
62317
   Gary Smith,

And ALL of the Toyota officer / directors. SHAME on you for mearly following GM:

1) Suing CARB (as did GM), so you that you didn't have to build EV's anymore. Just think how far of a lead you'd have, if you hadn't simply followed GM's processes.

2) Not even researching you own owner's experiences so you'd learn more about your own EV product (just like GM). Poor Gary Smith has to give inaccurate interviews, on your behalf, because of this silliy policy. It's as though you're ASHAMED of your own great product, simply because GM never wanted to build the EV1.

3) Letting ownership of the best deap cycle battery in these EV's (Panasonic E95) be snapped up by GM, so that (patents) they'd ultimately end up being sold to / owned by Chevron, who'd rather SUE Toyota if they try to make more E95's for the RAV4-EV, rather than let them compete with their oil product(s). Chevron's action, rather than being branded as a criminals, just sits on the patent, doing NOTHING with it ... even as their oil products become more and more scarse.

4) Had it not been for GM claiming they were trying to perfect hybrids over 10 years ago, Toyota likely wouldn't have bothered to enter the game, and managing somehow (dispite Toyota's 'follow GM, what ever they do' mentality) to end up being the world-dominant leader of the hybrid product.

So COME ON Toyota, you're getting a 'free-pass' due to hybrids, but if the oil crisis hadn't begun yet, you'd still be mimicing GM. Don't waste the free pass! BRING BACK EV's before GM wakes out of its stupid mode.
Posted by: Gary Hill


22-Jun-2008
62327
   What a bunch of LIES!

The price of Nickel is higher, but Nickel RECYCLES for high price, too. Most Ni is used in stainless steel, monel and other common metals, so there's a LOT of it.

Toyota stopped making the EV-95 battery after Chevron acquired control of the worldwide patent rights (from GM) on Oct. 10-16, 2000, and sued Toyota, extracting $30 million in penalties and forcing Toyota to stop making the RAV4-EV and the EV-95 batteries. The last 328 RAV4-EV were sold to the public, ENDING in Nov., 2002, so ALL RAV4-EV are more than 5 years old!

To say that they stopped making it because the battery is too expensive is just a blatant lie! Lithium is MUCH more expensive than the EV-95; and Toyota, if it were honest, would sell more of these batteries, because after perhaps 200,000 miles the RAV4-EV will be needing a replacement pack.

Thus, the RAV4-EV battery lasts longer than the life of the vehicle, even a Toyota vehicle.

Why so many lies? Toyota just lies, like GM?
Posted by: Doug Korthof


22-Jun-2008
62328
   NiMH battery cost estimates $9,000 not $30K

Toyota now blandly estimates the battery pack as '$30,000'. But that's not the truth, either:

From the CARB 2000 Battery Tech Assessment Workshop

'...NiMH batteries for the EV types now deployed in California...would cost EV manufacturers between $9,500 and $13,000 in the approximate quantities (10k-20k packs per year) required to implement the year 2003 ZEV regulation, and approximately $7,000 to $9,000 at the 100,000 packs per year level...'

The price of Ni metal has doubled since this estimate, but even twice $13,500 is not anywhere near "$30,000". But Nickel metal, unlike Lithium, has a recycle value, mitigating the cost issue. Even at $30,000, we would gladly buy the NiMH EV-95 batteries, since they last so long and are so reliable. But the true cost estimates are much lower than Toyota now claims.

CARB continues:

'...These projections exceed the automobile manufacturers’ cost goals by about $7,000 to $9,000 in the nearer term and by approximately $5,000 at automotive mass production levels...'

And that's the point. No matter what the cost, the Auto and Oil companies claim it's 'too much'.
Posted by: Doug Korthof


22-Jun-2008
62329
   Didn't I just read an article stating that Toyota is going to put over $1 billion into new NiMH battery factories? If so, then this article is even more confusing. If they really are going to build these new factories, then why not build new BEVs?
Posted by: Bob Willis

22-Jun-2008
62332
   Europe and the better part of the world have been living with gasoline prices 2-4x the cost in the US for years. They are still driving petrol cars. Large trucks still move goods. Those popluations have made choices citizens in the US are NOW just beginning to contemplate.

I think it's borderline arrogant to think that folks will flock to EV's costing $40-70k. There is no market for that. IMHO, the US population WILL go to smaller cars, carpooling and mass transportation long before ever considering the bloated costs of such EV's. The Toyota RAV4 EV was a nice product without a market. Until any new technology can compete in price, it's going to be tough going. When (not if) gasoline goes to $5-6 per gallon, many will adapt- and not likely run off to buy technology with a 20 year payback.
Posted by: Frank E


23-Jun-2008
62333
   Frank E suspiciously sounds like an anti-EV sock puppet...
Posted by: Wesley L

23-Jun-2008
62339
   I think Frank E's comments make a lot of sense. Nothing anti-EV about them.
Posted by: john

23-Jun-2008
62341
   Bob Willis, the Panasonic/Toyota joint venture that makes batteries for the Prius has announced a new factory. The figure I saw for the factory was $290 million. Maybe there are others as well, but I just saw the one announced.

Toyota needs new factories because of strong demand for its hybrids. Dealers sell all that are available, and batteries have been the gating item. Toyota also plans to release a plug-in hybrid, using lithium batteries, in 2010. Selling a battery-electric vehicle would require much more battery capacity. Such a vehicle does not appear likely.

Posted by: john

28-Jun-2008
62438
   Frank E. You don't need to reply to my comments, but just please get your facts straight. If you are a major in polymer, you should know that it is motor vehicles that drive oil consumption that results in cheap byproducts (like plastic), not the other way around. By that I mean a 42 gallon of oil will, at best, produce 19.5 gallons of gasoline and 9.5 gallons of diesel... the rest goes to other stuff. So, in terms of funding terror, you should acknowledge that the U.S. does not need foreigh oil for its plastics, we produce more than enough here. If all our cars were EVs that leaves all the (domestic) oil free for these other uses, and without any greenhouse gasses. And for those that claim that we can stop making Iran, Hezbollah, Chavez & co. rich, I say that is an arrogant statement. We only consume 25% of the world's oil, decreasing every day... if we got off of foreign oil completely, I guarantee you India and China would step in and pick up the slack. The best reason to get off of foreign oil is to avoid supply interruptions, costly military deployments, price shocks and the devaluation of the dollar due to record deficits ($2 billion leaving the U.S. daily just for oil) I firmly believe that the suppression of EV-95 batteries was suspicious, not because of the usual conspiracy theories .... but why would they crush these vehicle that they spent so much money building? Just to re-invent the wheel 15 years later with PHEVs with inferior range. One question I have, though, will someone PLEASE answer though: If the oil companies were truly evil and only cared about money, then we might not like them but at least we understand why they suppressed this technology back in '99 when there was an oil glut and gas was $1/gallon.... but why suppress it now? According to my calculations, Chevron would make more money leasing EV-95 batteries, since the customer would be comparing the monthly lease versus the gasoline @ $4/gal instead of $1/gal. These batteries are already proven over 100k, so Chevron knows just how long to set the lease (or how many times to lease) and they can even increase the lease payments the next time around to adjust for higher gas prices. Why would they no do this? Why not at least make some money off them before their patents expire Dec 31, 2014, or Li-Ion gains traction, whichever happens first??
Posted by: SUV Hunter

28-Jun-2008
62443
   Sorry, I meant 42 BARREL of oil....
Posted by: SUV Hunter

29-Jun-2008
62452
  

‘…that claim that we can stop making Iran, Hezbollah, Chavez & co. rich, I say that is an arrogant statement. We only consume 25% of the world's oil, decreasing every day... if we got off of foreign oil completely, I guarantee you India and China would step in and pick up the slack.…’

You don’t understand what I said. There is already an international agreement in place for sanctions against Iran. It has been ineffective. The only method outside of covert actions to promote regime change or military action, is to cut there revenue stream with an Oil Embargo. Presumably most countries will continue to support the Iran sanctions program. China & Russia are the only countries with the military and political status to violate an Oil Embargo. As I stated, they have no particular use for Iran, and would almost certainly buy Iranian Oil at a heavily discounted price – like maybe $20 per barrel. Iran would have no one else to sell to. At that price Iran would be struggling to feed it’s own people, never mind financing Hezbollah or a hugely expensive nuclear weapons program.

Also you underestimate the leadership role U.S. has in the world. Say the U.S. changed it’s transportation system sufficiently to get off of imported Oil (at least Oil imported outside of North America – remember Canada is the U.S. #1 Oil Exporter, and Mexico is #3 ), by using electric vehicles, NG to Methanol / DME fueled extreme efficiency engines, and improved rail, public transport and telecommuting. It is virtually a given that Canada & Mexico will immediately change their transportation system similarly due to a heavy reliance on U.S. imports and the Free Trade / Auto Pact agreements. And Europe and Japan would feel pretty stupid if they sat back, guzzling imported fuel, while the U.S. made an enormous stride in cutting toxic Smog and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Once the alternative transportation technology is in mass production, all countries in the world can be expected to quickly change over as well. As a matter of fact, with the about $30 of the current Oil Price due to positive speculation, the U.S. government could single handedly and almost immediately push the Oil price down to $70 per barrel, by simply announcing a believable plan to eliminate Oil Imports from unreliable (mostly Middle East suppliers) within say 5 years – entirely achievable. Germany, during WWII, South Africa and Brazil have all done much more than that, when pressed.

‘…e suppression of EV-95 batteries was suspicious, not because of the usual conspiracy theories.…’

That is a stupid statement. I don’t know of any ‘’ conspiracy theories ‘’. It’s just plain old business as usual, vested interests buying political favor, planting false information with media advertisements, control of media, buying false scientific research, pouring megabucks into alternative R&D – like the Oil Interests funding of Agrofuels, & the H2 economy scam and occasionally buying or suppressing alternative technology, by various means. You’ve never heard of Lobbyists?

‘…One question I have, though, will someone PLEASE answer though: If the oil companies were truly evil and only cared about money, then we might not like them but at least we understand why they suppressed this technology back in '99 when there was an oil glut and gas was $1/gallon.... but why suppress it now? According to my calculations, Chevron would make more money leasing EV-95 batteries, since the customer would be comparing the monthly lease versus the gasoline @ $4/gal instead of $1/gal.…’

I would say it is correct that Oil Interests only care about money – they sure as hell aren’t Bill Gates, and they certainly have done acts that can be described as evil. They played a major role both directly and indirectly in killing the California Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, which would have saved 10’s of thousands of lives by now, including thousands of children, and might have averted the current Oil Insecurity economic catastrophe we are now facing, and undoubtedly they were behind getting their cronies, Bush & Cheney, to invade Iraq, just as they created the Iran problem in the first place through their Operation Ajax – see:

The 1953 Iran coup d'état – Democracy in Iran ended with the hated Shah, an Oil Company Crony

Oil Interests could care less about the pittance they can make on batteries ( a real product with real competition – not a pump it out of the ground for $4 a barrel and sell it for $140 a barrel type product ). EV technology, they know damn well will keep the Oil Price from exploding to continually increasing levels, which is decidedly NOT in their interest. The Oil Price is highly volatile, and very sensitive to any indications of reduced demand due to new technology. Also, the Oil Interests game plan is to push us towards the Hydrogen Fueled Economy, not the Electric Powered Transportation sector. Chevron has already stated its plan to become a Hydrogen company:

Oil Companies prepare to ride the H2 Gravy Train

WWF describes the Oil Company’s Hydrogen Economy Scam


Posted by: Warren Heath


24-Jun-2008
62350
  

‘‘…Europe and the better part of the world have been living with gasoline prices 2-4x the cost in the US for years …’’

Europeans mostly drive high efficiency diesels and have much better public transportation and drive much shorter distances. The high efficiency European diesels cannot be sold in North America because corrupt bureaucrats & politicians have catered to another Oil Interest’s scam by reducing NOx emissions standards to six times lower than Europe, and of course high efficiency diesels produce much more NOx. The only passenger vehicle diesel that is legal, the Mercedes Benz BlueTec which meets North American Emissions requirements is only 15% more efficient than the comparable gas engine, in spite of diesel being 13% higher energy content.

‘‘…it's borderline arrogant to think that folks will flock to EV's costing $40-70k. There is no market for that. …’’

It’s downright arrogant to claim there is no market for EV’s costing $40-70k. Tesla’s and Aptera’s are selling out well in advance of production. You should learn a little bit about marketing, namely what is called a market niche. With no EV’s available, at any cost, there is a wide open market niche for EV’s, even if you believe that the average Joe still wants to drive an environmentally unfriendly, noisy, terrorist funding, economy destroying, expensive to drive, unreliable, smelly, boring, ICEV clone. And apparently GM, doesn’t agree with you, the way they are pushing the Volt series PHEV.

‘‘…population WILL go to smaller cars, carpooling and mass transportation long before ever considering the bloated costs of such EV's. The Toyota. …’’

Undoubtedly, many will (and are) going to smaller cars, carpooling and mass transportation, but many would also choose EV’s if only the criminally corrupt Automakers would sell them, to AT LEAST GIVE THE CONSUMER SOME CHOICE! And there is no reason to believe that BEV’s, extended range BEV’s, series HEV’s or series PHEV’s (all of which are simple minded variations or options of the standard EV drivetrain) are going to be any more expensive than comparable ICEV’s. In volume, large format NiMH batteries will cost $225 per kwh, according to an extensive UCDavis study, which means a Rav4 BEV sized battery pack would cost $7,500. So basically you have a Prius, without the expensive 76 hp Atkinson Engine, no complex Synergy Transmission, no costly, difficult emission control system with engine preheat vacuum bottle, no engine coolant system, no 18 kw generator, no engine monitoring and control system, no fuel tank and fuel delivery system, no PCV and ignition systems. Just the extra $7,500 for the battery (and an inexpensive charger). So it is difficult to imagine how the BEV would cost more than the extraordinarily popular Prius, although the Prius would cost typically $1,100 more per year for fuel, @ the average 33 miles per day travel, with $6 per gallon gas, plus considerably more for maintenance.

‘‘…When (not if) gasoline goes to $5-6 per gallon, many will adapt- and not likely run off to buy technology with a 20 year paybac …’’

I don’t know where you get your 20 year payback number, A small car with an excellent 35 mpg rating, would cost $1800 per year more to drive, than a BEV, for an average 33 mile per day travel, with gas @ $6 per gallon. As I showed for the Prius, the BEV should cost at most the same as the ICEV, in volume. And the Rav4 BEV did not take advantage of ultralight construction, which would cut the battery pack size in half, for the same range.

Regarding the price of NiMH batteries, the prices for standard AA NiMH batteries have declined from $1250 per kwh, 1600 mah cells, in 2001, to $308 per kwh, 2500 mah cells, now. Both retail prices. This in spite of the ~400% rise in nickel prices since then. Volume -> High Capital -> High R&D funds -> gradual and consistent chipping away at costs (a very effective tweaking process) or technological breakthroughs and of course economies of scale. Judging from the fact that large format Lead-Acid storage batteries are ~10% of the cost of small format, and taking into account volume, it is easy to see that NiMH shouldn’t cost more than $220 per kwh in large format. The rise in nickel prices is, of course, significant but at <12% nickel @ $23 per lb, that works out to $76 per kwh for the 95 AH EV-95 batteries. So a fourfold increase in nickel price would add $50 per kwh to the battery pack price and that doesn’t include the fact that the nickel is almost 100% recyclable. And the used automotive battery packs are of great value for utilities (who are already negotiating with GM about using Volt expired battery packs), for peak shaving, a very light duty application for batteries. Miles Automotive is selling a 30 kwh Li-Ion battery pack street legal vehicle, fully safety tested & approved, 85 mph, 150 mile range in the U.S. within 1 year @ $29,000. Even with those extremely low volumes, their Li-Ion batteries can’t be more than $500 per kwh.

It’s amazing how Big Auto spokespersons, like to bemoan the high cost of batteries, like that won’t improve with innovation and volume. Whereas, for their Oil buddies’ Hydrogen Economy special, GM is claiming they expect to produce fuel cells in volume for $50 kw, while the current price is $12,000 per kw for basic PEM fuel cell stacks. Going by those numbers, we should expect battery prices to be <$5 per kwh in volume, or $150 for a Rav4 BEV battery pack, hey, I’m just going by GM’s firmly stated expectations for price improvement for volume and technological innovation.


Posted by: Warren Heath


24-Jun-2008
62351
   So if the battery pack on a Rav4 EV is too pricey, cut the 120 mile range down to 40 miles, which makes your batteries $9000 instead of $27,000. Of course you'll want an on-board generator to extend the range when you need to, but since the average American commuter drives 28 miles/day you'll only occassionally need that generator.

This is called a series-hybrid and is what really killed the electric car. At the 1998 Detroit Auto Show, GM showed a 40-mile plug-in version of the EV1 with on-board generator for extended range and that sent the Oil Companies ballistic. Why, because if everyone could drive 40-miles each day without any gas it would reduce average per capita gasoline consumption by 70% (actually more like 85% since series hybrids are more efficent gasoline cars too). This was a huge threat and was addressed very agressively.

The Chevy Volt claims to be doing the same thing, this time with Lithium batteries, so will the Oil Companies sit back and let it happen, or are they already involved in this plan. Tune into our next episode to find out.
Posted by: Mark Haines


24-Jun-2008
62353
   Bill,

I agree with Doug and others that you missed a point about the NiMH batteries. Unlike Lithium Ions, via the RAV4, NiMH batteries have a proven history of lasting 10+ years in real world circumstances. As the folks at Calcars often say, NiMH batteries are "good enough" technology, especially for PHEVs. Even if/when lithium ions mature enough to be usable, they will most likely get tied up in patents, just like the NiMH technology was. What is to keep Exxon-Mobil from buying A123, when the time comes?

As others have pointed out, Toyota was burned pretty badly on the large format battery issue. This is evident even to this day, as Toyota, despite its leadership position in hybrid technology, is still surprisingly tentative with PHEV technology. Although HEVs also use NiMH cells, these are smaller cells built to handle larger currents; the cells used by the RAV4 EV and needed for PHEVs are slightly different (more storage, less current draw).
Posted by: Jim Beyer


24-Jun-2008
62354
   Here is an excerpt from Sherry Boschert's book, "Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars That Will Recharge America":

"Perhaps most telling, Stanford Ovshinsky, the developer of the NiMH battery whose Ovonics company was consumed by ECD and then by Cobasys, said in a June 2006 [Economist] article that he had designed a radical improvement to the batteries that would be perfect for plug-in cars if only the company would let him proceed."

Here is an excerpt from: http://electrifyingtimes.com/hurryupandwait.html

The room was filled with prominent researchers and PhD electrochemists. At the end of one session, one of the Researchers turned to the back of the room and point blank, read a summary of the low cost materials used in the amorphous NiMH cells manufactured by Stanford's company, Ovonics. He then asked Stanford why his batteries were still prohibitively priced. Stanford didn't answer, but had his Ovonics company spokesman speak up. He said it was to recoup their investment and R&D. The room rustled, because everyone knew that they still were making a killing compared to the materials costs.

To learn more about Chevron/Cobasys' NiMH lawsuits and sequestration of large format NiMH technology read:

http://www.evworld.com/blogs/index.cfm?page=blogentry&authorid=51&blogid=104
Posted by: Mark Seidler


24-Jun-2008
62359
   Mark Haines is right, the first and obvious version of the standard EV chassis that could have been made by Auto companies is the series hybrid with a high efficiency engine / generator, which Detroit did indeed build and test using, the then entirely legal diesel engine. It’s amazing how Detroit has avoided high efficiency engines like they were the plague, including the extreme efficiency, clean burning methanol fueled engine. See:

John Westlund explains how the Government had to pay Detroit to build 60-80 mpg HEVs in the 90’s, which they easily did, and pocketed most of the cash, without offering the vehicles for sale.

The 43% efficient, extremely low emissions, Methanol engine, with a extraordinarily wide island of high efficiency.

The 45% efficient, ultra-lightweight, FreePistonPower engine/generator – MegaBucks Detroit couldn’t come up with this?

The 50% efficient, low emissions, Liquid Piston HEHC engine, with engines like these – who needs Fool Cells?

The next logical version would be a true Range Extended BEV – not like the Volt, which is actually a PHEV. This would be a BEV with a Rav4 BEV sized 30 kwh battery pack and a small 10 kw, continuous rated engine/generator – not like the Volt’s or Prius’ large > 50 kw engines. Again, sensibly, they would use one of the extreme efficiency engines, which would supply sufficient power to propel a BEV @ 60 mph continuous average highway speed, and would recharge the battery in 3 hrs if parked somewhere. Excellent to eliminate ‘’ Range Anxiety ‘’ which some would have with BEV’s. Of course, > 90% of the mileage would be on Utility Energy The generator would be so small, it could even be made easily removable, by the owner.. This version makes more sense to me than the PHEV.

A quote from GM-Ovonics from 1998:

‘’… GM's series hybrid (using an electric motor to drive the front wheels) uses a compact micro gas turbine generator system to charge the GM Ovonic NiMH HEV battery pack while driving, which provides an effective fuel economy of nearly 100 miles per gallon (MPG) of reformulated gasoline! This is based on GM's anticipation that the series hybrid owner will plug the vehicle in overnight while parked in the garage (grid charging), leaving in the morning with the HEV batteries fully charged. Operating as an HEV only (no grid charging), the hybrid obtains 60 MPG highway and provides a 350 mile driving range. When the generator is running, tailpipe emissions are one half of California's stringent ultra low emission levels (ULEV). The very high power to energy ratio GM Ovonic NiMH battery provides ample power for acceleration (zero to 60 MPH in nine seconds) and offers a zero emission, EV only, driving range of 40 miles, significantly more than other HEV battery types can provide. …’’


Posted by: Warren Heath

24-Jun-2008
62361
   Interesting rebuttal... Tesla IS a niche market. Anyone planning on buying one? Do you think ANYONE who's yearly salary is less than $100k will buy one? How well off do you have to be to buy a Tesla? I predict that Roadster niche will be filled in less than 5 years. Sold out NOW or not. Geez, how many is that?? It is NOT downright arrogant - as history will tell.

I believe PRICE/COST is a prime motivator for the greater population. If gasoline was $1/gallon, EV's would be minor news at best.

Let's not get off on the terrorist funding topic. How about not buying ANYTHING made, sustained or produced using foreign oil. Where did the synthetics in your clothes come from or the plastic in your TV, shoes or keyboard? Oh, I get it,,,, just a little bit of foreign oil is AOK as long as we don't use it to drive. There's plenty of room for being hypocritical.

As far as mileage.... I drive MUCH less that 33 miles per day. As eluded to earlier, Europeans drive less. Some of us (lucky) folks don't need to spend an hour on the road each way. That means my ol'(paid for) SUV is a good deal when factoring in the cost (I did say $40k) of a new EV.

Gasoline is not going to $6 anyday soon. It WILL someday. Electricity will also increase. That throws quite a few calculations off. Even NBC did a report showing an 11.4 year payback comparing the Toyota Highlander hybrid cost to it's full ICE counterpart. That was at $4/gallon and 25k miles per year. Drive less and that takes longer. You can bake and saute' the statistics anyway you want. Mine ain't yours as they say... That mostly said for now, I am hopeful in the EV future of things. I wrote an extensive term paper over 28 years ago predicting the resurgance of electric cars. As we all know the right technology has been long in coming and will be here to stay..
Posted by: Frank E


24-Jun-2008
62362
   Frank E. "Gasoline is not going to $6 anyday soon" Wait till Israel bombs Iran's nuclear site. You'll think $6 gas is cheap if there is any to purchase.
Posted by: Antranig Van

24-Jun-2008
62364
  

‘…Let's not get off on the terrorist funding topic. How about not buying ANYTHING made, sustained or produced using foreign oil. Where did the synthetics in your clothes come from or the plastic in your TV, shoes or keyboard? Oh, I get it,,,, just a little bit of foreign oil is AOK as long as we don't use it to drive. There's plenty of room for being hypocritical. …’

Let me explain to you how it works. Right now Iran is funding Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. They have high popularity in Lebanon, Palestine and other areas, because they spend Iranian Oil bucks like it was water. Schools for the kids, cheap housing, medical care – you name it. Iran is also using it’s huge Oil Revenue to build nuclear weapons, that may one day be detonated in American cities. Without huge Oil Revenues, the Iranian people would be starving and would likely revolt against the unpopular regime.

So how do you deal with this problem. Yeah, you can bomb the bejesus out of them, as Israel has threatened to, likely effect, oil exports out of the Persian Golf, virtually shut down, wacky Iranian government becomes popular with it’s people, dangerous tension with Iran’s friend’s of convenience Venezuela, Russia & China. Oil prices skyrocket, fuel rationing begins in the West, Military Conscription in the U.S., Civil War in Iraq, Economic Chaos, Terrorist attacks around the World using sophisticated Iranian weapons, Iran stands to get even more Oil Revenue, and uses it to buy even more radical, suicide bomber type friends.

So the method of choice is economic sanctions. Problem is with >$130 plus Oil, Iran can always buy it’s way around sanctions. Only effective route really requires an Embargo of Iranian Oil exports. Problem with that, we are so addicted to foreign source Oil that the West can’t do without Iranian Oil. The ICEV is where almost all of that Oil goes to. Of course China & Russia and some others may not sign on to an embargo, but don’t worry, if they get the chance they will screw Iran so bad, they’ll be cursing the infidel Chinese & Russians. With no other market to sell to, the Russians and Chinese may agree to import Iranian crude for $20 per barrel. Smaller countries can be leveraged to not accept Iranian crude, by offering discount crude as a trade – guess what – that means having more crude to offer – crude we don’t have to offer – Why – because we’re burning way too much in our archaic, fuel guzzling automobiles and trucks. There is no technological difficulty for Western nations to reduce their crude imports by 80%. It is only a political difficulty – that is – politicians don’t want to step on the toes of the OIL INTERESTS – who stuff so much cash into the politicians pockets.

So to summarize, the problem isn’t that we use a lot of Oil, the problem is we are using WAY TOO MUCH OIL, Oil that we need to import from unsavory governments – our enemies – at skyrocketing prices. Therefore, in more ways than one, we are paying for our own destruction.


Posted by: Warren Heath


24-Jun-2008
62365
  

‘…I believe PRICE/COST is a prime motivator for the greater population. If gasoline was $1/gallon, EV's would be minor news at best …’

I doubt that. I sure want one for their much better performance, simplicity and reliability – plus I just happen to like Electric Technology. The Tesla’s smooth, quiet acceleration of 0-60 in 3.9 secs – sounds really attractive. No noise, no smoke, drive it indoors.

How about an SUV series HEV with 4 powerful wheel motors. Triple the acceleration of any SUV on the market, Zero Turning Radius, Triple the Fuel Economy, Triple the Range, Silent Operation Mode, superb High Efficiency Generator with Battery Pack – better than anything on the market right now (people are spending > $20,000 on Home Generation systems, after the Katrina disaster), much better cornering by powered all 4 wheels on a turn, true All Wheel Drive, Quadruple Drive Redundancy, much more resistant to Rollover – due to the entire drivetrain weight being in or under the Chassis and also the Gyroscopic effect of the Wheel Motors, much lower Maintenance Costs, much longer Vehicle Life, much greater Reliability, drivable inside Buildings – where it can supply emergency power, safer to drive without that Humungous Gas Engine to smash its way onto your lap, without a drive shaft, the wheels can have free vertical movement of a foot or more (say use air shocks) so as to maintain traction on all wheels even on rugged ground (where normal SUV’s typically get hung up) and in an accident, blow the air out of the shocks so as to create an extremely low center of gravity, thus preventing rollover. I would say that would have a lot of popularity, at any fuel price, rather than your run-of-the-mill SUV clone. See:

The Crusher Series Hybrid Electric Vehicle with Wheel Motors video

The Crusher Series Hybrid Electric Vehicle with Wheel Motors description

Posted by: Warren Heath


24-Jun-2008
62370
   Warren, Time to go to bed thar ol' boy....neither your opinion OR attempt at a conversation will make a difference.

I will show you who is right by my own words...(hugs)
Posted by: Frank E


25-Jun-2008
62371
   Antranig: Certainly not soon. Likely to cost that in our lifetime. What WILL happen is that big oil will own a considerable amount of key patents so you will think it's about $6 gasoline.

please don't let hysteria and blind enthusiasum take over for wisdom.
Posted by: Frank E


25-Jun-2008
62375
   FrankE "Certainly not soon". Last week on CNBC (a business cable channel in USA) and CNN there were several different middle east experts who stated sometime between the American election and the inauguration of the newly elected president, Israel is going to bomb Iran's nuclear site. I hope you are right and the experts are wrong.
Posted by: Antranig Van

25-Jun-2008
62376
   Very interesting comments. Certainly Toyota is more like GM than not. Unfortunately these companies have to sell the cars in the 3-4 yr pipeline.

As far as Israel bombing Iran;don't be glib about it, this is serious business. No doubt the "weapons of mass destruction" misinformation was from intentionally given us by Israel as well.
Posted by: Lewis Pinch


25-Jun-2008
62380
   Better buy that EV or PHEV real quick or do a convert job ‘cause:

Israel 'will attack Iran' before new US president sworn in, John Bolton predicts

Just think – those who claim EV’s take way to long too charge, and plugging in a vehicle at night is way too inconvenient – will be waiting in a long lineup’ for fuel for a couple of hours, just to get their gasoline ration.


Posted by: Warren Heath


25-Jun-2008
62382
   Thank you Mr. Heath. John Bolton was not the expert I was referring to but his prediction was what the other middle east experts were stating on CNBC/CNN. BTW-There are many other incidents that could cause the price of gas to $6. If you remember a couple of months ago Iran send there wacko sailors in a speed boats threatening an American Navy ship, the minute the story hit the wire, price of oil went up. I predict if and when the price of oil is dropping Iran will shoot a missile, or instigate an American Navy ship to shoot one of it's speed boats causing the price of oil to spike above $200.00 P/B.
Posted by: Antranig Van

26-Jun-2008
62402
   To Frank who says we need to eliminate our plastics and fabrics to eliminate foreign oil - if we are no longer using copious amounts each week fueling our commuter cars then that much more oil is freed up for consumption in other ways.

If we really wanted off oil completely we'd be making plastics from soybeans or other renewable materials.

I want an EV today. No longer want to fund big oil or their terrorist friends.

I drive a modest 2.0L four cylinder car that gets 34 mpg/350 mile range/125 mph top speed and don't need those capabilities. It has not been out of the county for months nor has it been past 70 mph for months either.

Its 10 miles to work and ten miles home again. Doesn't take much of an EV to do that.

What frustrates me is the lack of openess by the big companies who beg for our tax dollars when times are hard and then try to con us our of our income with shoddy/wasteful products when times are good.
Posted by: Fritz Jackson


27-Jun-2008
62427
   I am adding my final thoughts about this most-interesting post. Fritz,,,,,I NEVER said anything (underlined) about eliminating plastics. In the US, it amounts to 20% (today). If you play the statistics like Warren, you lose the war. (BTW, I have a minor in polymer technology with - an A average) I have reached the conclusion that may of the opinions in this string are emphatically expressed. I hope to put temper that the world will NOT run out of oil before you or I draw last breaths. What is needed is something many forgotten prophets of this planet have exposed -that our only purpose is to provide for a better life for future inhabitants. So often that has been confused better with digital technology and MORE (to be defined someday) comfortable lifestyles. Can we (WE?!?!) collectively turn the tide in a direction that provides a greater responsibility without being hysterical?? Our parents may not have provided all these answers...IMHO, no response is needed.
Posted by: Frank E


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